This week, amidst reports concerning the Bank of Japan, the yen’s strength has been notable. However, overshadowed by this, the dollar market has also seen a predominance of dollar selling. Whether the US employment statistics released today will solidify the trend of dollar weakness for the coming week or return the market to a state of confusion is something to watch closely.
The consensus forecast for the February US employment statistics to be released this time is an increase of 200,000 in the number of employed persons. After exceeding all major economists’ expectations with an increase of 353,000 in January, maintaining an average increase will be crucial. If there’s a recoil decrease, it could lead to a continuation of the trend of dollar weakness.
The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 3.7%, the same level as the previous month. Average hourly earnings are anticipated to grow by 4.3% year-on-year, a slight slowdown from the previous +4.5%. Similarly, the month-on-month growth is expected to slow down from +0.6% to +0.2%.
Other indicators to be released include the Eurozone’s real GDP final figure for the fourth quarter and Canada’s employment statistics for February.
In terms of speaking events, there will be a press conference by Simkus, Governor of the Bank of Lithuania, and an event attended by Holzmann, Governor of the Austrian National Bank. While ECB President Lagarde explicitly stated there was no discussion of rate cuts, the economic forecasts from staff suggested a downward revision in inflation forecasts as anticipated by the market. It’s worth checking for any rate cut-related comments from ECB officials.
Additionally, ahead of the weekend blackout period before the FOMC meeting, there will be speeches by Fed officials, starting with New York Fed President Williams participating in a panel discussion today. Following Chairman Powell’s congressional testimony, these final remarks from key officials before the FOMC meeting will be closely watched.
Today’s focus is on the February US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) [month-on-month] and the February unemployment rate, both scheduled for release. It’s important to monitor the market movements following these releases. Given the significant dollar selling already seen this week, a positive outcome could lead to a strong buyback, making it easier to ride the short-term trend.
