The dollar is experiencing a slight downward trend at the moment. Despite strengthening due to last weekend’s US employment statistics, Powell’s remarks at the beginning of the week, and the ISM index, yesterday saw a corrective selling pressure on the dollar. Today, that movement has somewhat subsided, and we are currently observing the situation. The dollar-yen is hovering just below the 148 yen level, while the euro-dollar pair has shown minor movements from the mid to late 1.07 range.
Unless there are news events like escalating or easing tensions in the Middle East, bold policy announcements or disappointments in China that could sway market risks, the mood is likely to remain focused on the US Consumer Price Index scheduled for next week, on the 13th.
Scheduled economic indicators for the overseas markets later today include the US trade balance (December), and Canada’s international merchandise trade (December). These are expected to merely confirm fundamentals, so significant movements in the dollar market are not anticipated.
While the US dollar continues its range-bound behavior, attention is drawn to Vice Governor Uchida’s speech and press conference in Nara on the 8th. Market expectations are strengthening for policy adjustments, including the removal of negative interest rates, to be implemented in March or April. Therefore, attention is turning towards the yen’s movement, which is likely to be influenced by speculations for tomorrow. The basic strategy leans towards buying the Japanese yen, implying a focus on selling the yen crosses.
