As we approach the Christmas vacation starting this weekend and into the early next week, the market seems to be gradually shifting into a watch-and-see mode. Today, the UK stock market and the US bond market will have shortened trading hours, adding to the Christmas atmosphere. The dollar has been on a weakening trend since November, and unless unexpected developments occur, it is likely that the dollar’s weakness will persist as we head into Christmas.
Several economic announcements are scheduled, including the U.S. Durable Goods Orders (November preliminary), U.S. Personal Income and Spending (November), U.S. PCE Deflator (November), Canadian Monthly Real GDP (October), and at midnight on the 23rd, U.S. New Home Sales (November) and U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (December final) among others. The U.S. PCE Deflator is expected to show a slowdown, with a year-on-year increase of +3.3% compared to the previous +3.5%. Personal Income is expected to rise to +0.4% from the previous +0.2%. Durable Goods Orders are forecasted to recover to +2.3% on a month-on-month basis from the previous -5.4%. However, this indicator has a high degree of volatility, and market confidence in forecasts is low.
Regarding speaking events, there are no specific plans. It truly is the Christmas mood.
The U.S. PCE Deflator is a relatively significant indicator, and while there is the potential for significant movement amid thin trading, it is anticipated that the trend may not be sustained.
If you plan to trade, the cryptocurrency market has been more active lately, making it more efficient. I’m keeping an eye on it.”