Markets in an adjustment mood in the first half of the week

According to the market report, the beginning of this week has seen a broadening corrective mood in trading. Last week, the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the European Central Bank (ECB) meetings resulted in a strengthening of selling pressure on the US dollar. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen weakened due to the Bank of Japan’s continuation of large-scale easing measures. Although selling pressure on the yen has continued at the start of this week, there has been an observed corrective pressure on the US dollar, leading to a dominant upward movement in the dollar. Today, the Australian dollar/US dollar pair declined following the release of the minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting, and this decline extended to the New Zealand dollar/US dollar pair. The upward movement of the US dollar has found new support factors.

Market participants are focusing on upcoming events such as the testimony of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to Congress later in the week, as well as monetary policy announcements from the Bank of England, Swiss National Bank, and the Central Bank of Turkey on Thursday. Today, the US dollar is likely to face continued corrective pressure. Additionally, verbal interventions to discourage yen appreciation from Japanese government officials, including Finance Minister Suzuki and Economy Minister Nishimura, have begun, resulting in a back-and-forth movement in the USD/JPY exchange rate. It seems that the market sentiment is becoming more sensitive to policymakers’ statements.

Later in the day, economic indicators to be released in foreign markets include the Eurozone current account balance (April), Hong Kong consumer price index (May), US housing starts (May), and the monetary policy interest rate decision of the Hungarian central bank, among others.

Based on the changing flow influenced by statements from various global officials, the plan to target buying AUD/JPY has been temporarily suspended due to the shift in the market dynamics.

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🗞️ Middle East Conflict Stalemate — Markets Lose Direction / U.S. Jobs Report Tonight 🌍 Market Theme “War × Inflation × Uncertainty” Tensions in the Middle East remain high. Both sides — the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other — continue to signal their willingness to prolong the conflict, with no clear signs of resolution. The situation has effectively entered a phase of strategic stalemate, where each side is testing the other’s endurance. 🛢 Oil as the Key Barometer To gauge the market impact of the Middle East crisis, crude oil futures have become the most important indicator. Key concerns include: Risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz Potential disruptions to global oil supply Rising inflationary pressure However: The panic selling in equities has somewhat eased The FX market currently lacks strong directional momentum 💱 FX Market Basic structure Geopolitical crisis → USD buying But at the moment: Position adjustments Headline-driven reactions Interest rate expectations are all interacting. As a result, the market is trading in a nervous range-bound environment, with no decisive catalyst for a sustained USD rally. 🇺🇸 Trump Administration Developments Policies from President Donald Trump are also attracting market attention. Higher oil prices could lead to: Stronger inflation pressure Rising political dissatisfaction ahead of midterm elections According to reports, the administration is considering measures such as: Restrictions on Russian oil exports Intervention in oil futures markets 👉 These steps may indicate efforts to find an exit path from the conflict. Meanwhile, reports suggest that Iran may also be experiencing depletion of missiles and weapon systems. 📊 Tonight’s Major Event 🇺🇸 U.S. Employment Report (Nonfarm Payrolls) Market expectations: Indicator Forecast Previous Nonfarm Payrolls +55K +130K Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.3% Released simultaneously: U.S. Retail Sales Indicator Forecast Month-over-month -0.3% Ex-auto 0.0% 👉 The key focus will be deviation from expectations. However: The approaching weekend Ongoing war-related headlines may limit the durability of any market reaction. 📊 Other Economic Data Eurozone Final GDP U.S. Business Inventories Canada Ivey PMI Brazil Industrial Production 🎙 Central Bank Events Scheduled speakers include: Mary Daly Jeffrey Schmid Susan Collins Piero Cipollone Isabel Schnabel Additionally, a global central bank conference will discuss: “The U.S. dollar’s role as a safe-haven asset.” 📈 New Market Theme: Rate Hike Expectations The chain reaction: Middle East conflict → Higher oil prices → Rising inflation is bringing back interest rate hike expectations. European short-term rate market ECB rate hike probabilities: Year-end: 80% July: 50% Bank of Japan April hike probability: 50% (according to former BOJ board member Maeda) However, markets may increasingly focus on recession risks rather than rate differentials. 🧭 Summary The current market is dominated by war-related headlines. Key drivers: Oil prices Geopolitical developments U.S. employment data At the same time: Panic selling in equities has eased FX markets have lost clear direction For now, the environment can be summarized as: “Markets move on war headlines and adjust on economic data.” This dynamic is likely to continue in the near term.

🗞️ Middle East Conflict Stalemate — Markets Lose Direction / U.S. Jobs Report Tonight 🌍 Market Theme “War × Inflation × Uncertainty” Tensions in the

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