Today, the UK observes a bank holiday for King Charles’ coronation ceremony. With few major economic indicators scheduled to be released in the US and Europe, the market is expected to adopt a wait-and-see attitude.
Later in the overseas market, US wholesale inventories (final value) for March are scheduled to be released. Key financial authorities’ planned speeches are relatively scarce, including those from ECB Chief Economist Lane and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari.
Various factors emerged during Japan’s extended holidays last week, including monetary policy announcements by central banks in the US, Europe, and China, US employment statistics, and rumors of insolvency and management instability at US regional banks. Each of the central banks in the US, Europe, and China announced a 25bp rate hike, as expected, with the pace of rate hikes slowing down. However, this was already anticipated. While the US hinted at a halt to rate hikes in its outlook, Europe suggested the possibility of additional rate hikes. Moreover, the unexpected resumption of rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia on the 2nd added selling pressure on the US dollar.
The impact on the yen exchange rate came from the spread of rumors of insolvency and management instability at US regional banks. The dollar-yen exchange rate, which had been lifted by the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) continued easing stance under Ueda, was pushed back to the level at the time of the BOJ meeting. However, stronger-than-expected US employment statistics over the weekend dispelled concerns about a US economic recession, leading to a reaction such as rising stock prices and a weaker yen. Today, in New York time, the results of surveys on US financial institutions, including the FRB’s quarterly bank lending attitude and the FRB’s financial stability report, will be released.
This week, the latest US consumer price index will be announced on Wednesday. The degree of inflation slowdown will be in focus, and until then, the market conditions are expected to be difficult to grasp.
Today’s price movements may be limited, but the focus remains on selling USD.