This week’s exchange rate is sensitive to risk trends in the stock market and bond yield trends. With important events such as the announcement of the results of the Bank of Japan decision meeting tomorrow and the announcement of monetary policy by the US FOMC and ECB in the second half of next week, it is basically not in a situation to form a positive trend.
Among them, the US GDP preliminary figures for the first quarter are likely to be the focus of attention today. The annual growth rate is expected to be about +1.9% compared to the previous quarter, slowing down from the previous +2.6%. However, personal consumption is expected to pick up from +1.0% in the previous survey to +4.0%. As for inflation-related indicators, the GDP deflator is expected to slow down slightly from +3.9% in the previous quarter to +3.7% from the previous quarter. The point is that the core PCE deflator is expected to rise from +4.4% in the previous quarter to +4.7% from the previous quarter. The market is expected to react sensitively to this figure.
Today, it is assumed that the US real GDP and US personal consumption will move the USD significantly. Pay attention to the movement after this.