The downward trend in the dollar exchange rate has eased this week. The background is that the US FOMC in May is expected to raise interest rates by 25bp. In addition, there are speculations of an additional interest rate hike of around 30% at the June FOMC. However, that view has stabilized over the past couple of days, and it does not appear that the dollar will continue to be actively bought.
From this weekend, we will enter a blackout period during which US financial officials will refrain from making statements. FRB Governor Waller, Cleveland Fed President Mester, FRB Governor Bowman, and Atlanta Fed President Bostic are scheduled to give lectures and participate in events today.
Economic statistics related to the United States include the number of new applications for unemployment insurance (04/09 – 04/15), the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank business index (April), the number of used home sales in the United States (March), and the leading economic index ( March) are scheduled.
Turning to Europe and the UK, the publication of the ECB minutes (held on March 16), Italian central bank governor Visco, Austrian central bank governor Holzmann, Bank of England member Tenreiro, ECB governor Schnabel, ECB governor Lagarde, and other opportunities to speak. is scheduled. The ECB and the Bank of England are still under pressure to deal with persistent inflation, and the market’s outlook for interest rates is still uncertain. It seems that he will react nervously to the officials’ remarks.
As the CPI in the UK continues to be high, we considered buying GBP as well, but the price fluctuations continue to fluctuate, making it difficult to buy.
Current position continues to sell USDCHF only.
Today, the US Philadelphia Fed Business Conditions Index will be released, so we plan to confirm the USD’s movement after this and reconsider its positioning.