With the U.S. employment statistics at the end of last week and the start of the new administration by Governor Ueda of the Bank of Japan at the beginning of the week, the dollar/yen exchange rate rose from around 131 yen to just below 134 yen. The U.S. employment statistics showed an unexpected drop in the unemployment rate, and employment growth also maintained a level. Market expectations for the 25bp rate hike in May have risen to around 70%. In addition, the Governor of the Bank of Japan, Ueda, declared the continuation of easing measures such as YCC and negative interest rates, making it easier for the yen to sell.
However, looking at the overall dollar market, although dollar-buying is somewhat dominant, the dollar index has not yet shown an upward trend. The downtrend has come to a halt. Among them, today is waiting for the release of tomorrow’s US consumer price index. At the moment, headline inflation is likely to continue its downward trend, while core inflation is likely to maintain its persistent upward momentum. A surprise is likely to be needed for the dollar appreciation trend to start.
Today’s event is between events, so we lack material clues. The IMF releases its world economic outlook. In addition, a new flow is expected as London Europeans will start full-scale operation after the Easter holidays.
I thought about selling USDJPY from the perspective of selling USD, but today, CHF is stronger than JPY. From here to selling USDCHF earlier.