The market has become more responsive to US economic statistics this week, partly because financial instability has calmed down. The US ISM manufacturing index on Monday and yesterday’s US JOLT job openings were weak, so the dollar selling pressure is revived. The latest US jobs report is due to be released on Friday this week, making it the event of the highest interest for the market.
Today’s US ADP employment statistics are positioned as a prelude to that. As the market reacted strongly to yesterday’s decline in JOLT job openings, it is possible that the ADP employment trend will also cause a nervous reaction. The market forecast is for an increase of 210,000, a slight decrease from the previous increase of 242,000. In terms of curbing inflation, a cooling of the labor market to some extent would be welcomed as it would lead to an easing of wage pressures. However, yesterday’s speculation of an interest rate hike receded and US stocks fell due to concerns about a slowdown in the economy. For the market as a whole, today’s readings are likely to test whether the dollar reacts to interest rates or the economy.
It is assumed that this week will still go up and down depending on the results of US economic indicators. In particular, pay attention to the results of the March ISM Non-Manufacturing Index.