Forex Top Team

Back to all insights

The dollar exchange rate fluctuates at the beginning of the week, and it is difficult to find a clue today

The dollar exchange rate fluctuated at the beginning of the week. The surge in crude oil prices is the reason for the dollar buying. Unexpected announcements of large production cuts by Saudi Arabia and others have led to a surge in crude oil futures. Inflationary fears are associated with tightening US interest rates. In the short-term money market, the main axis of the May FOMC observation has moved from the unchanged group to the 25bp rate hike group.

On the other hand, the selling of the dollar was due to the weakening of the US ISM Manufacturing Index released in the New York market. The dollar is selling off as US Treasury yields fall.

At present, crude oil prices remain high. In addition, the 25bp interest rate hike continues to outpace the moratorium on the May US FOMC forecast in the short-term money market. However, the dollar exchange rate has not broken the weak dollar trend since March.

The future checkpoint is the sustainability of high oil prices. If it continues for longer than expected, there is a risk that it will spread as a new source of inflation. In the current market, as headline inflation peaks out, the economy is gradually decelerating due to the cumulative effect of interest rate hikes so far, and the spillover effects of inflation are gradually easing, leading to the beginning of interest rate cuts. It remains to be seen whether this scenario will be affected by higher oil prices.

USD continues to sell.

 

Currently, the power balance on the 15 minute foot is

GBP > EUR = NZD > CHF > CAD > AUD = USD > JPY

More Insights

🗞️ Middle East Conflict Stalemate — Markets Lose Direction / U.S. Jobs Report Tonight 🌍 Market Theme “War × Inflation × Uncertainty” Tensions in the Middle East remain high. Both sides — the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other — continue to signal their willingness to prolong the conflict, with no clear signs of resolution. The situation has effectively entered a phase of strategic stalemate, where each side is testing the other’s endurance. 🛢 Oil as the Key Barometer To gauge the market impact of the Middle East crisis, crude oil futures have become the most important indicator. Key concerns include: Risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz Potential disruptions to global oil supply Rising inflationary pressure However: The panic selling in equities has somewhat eased The FX market currently lacks strong directional momentum 💱 FX Market Basic structure Geopolitical crisis → USD buying But at the moment: Position adjustments Headline-driven reactions Interest rate expectations are all interacting. As a result, the market is trading in a nervous range-bound environment, with no decisive catalyst for a sustained USD rally. 🇺🇸 Trump Administration Developments Policies from President Donald Trump are also attracting market attention. Higher oil prices could lead to: Stronger inflation pressure Rising political dissatisfaction ahead of midterm elections According to reports, the administration is considering measures such as: Restrictions on Russian oil exports Intervention in oil futures markets 👉 These steps may indicate efforts to find an exit path from the conflict. Meanwhile, reports suggest that Iran may also be experiencing depletion of missiles and weapon systems. 📊 Tonight’s Major Event 🇺🇸 U.S. Employment Report (Nonfarm Payrolls) Market expectations: Indicator Forecast Previous Nonfarm Payrolls +55K +130K Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.3% Released simultaneously: U.S. Retail Sales Indicator Forecast Month-over-month -0.3% Ex-auto 0.0% 👉 The key focus will be deviation from expectations. However: The approaching weekend Ongoing war-related headlines may limit the durability of any market reaction. 📊 Other Economic Data Eurozone Final GDP U.S. Business Inventories Canada Ivey PMI Brazil Industrial Production 🎙 Central Bank Events Scheduled speakers include: Mary Daly Jeffrey Schmid Susan Collins Piero Cipollone Isabel Schnabel Additionally, a global central bank conference will discuss: “The U.S. dollar’s role as a safe-haven asset.” 📈 New Market Theme: Rate Hike Expectations The chain reaction: Middle East conflict → Higher oil prices → Rising inflation is bringing back interest rate hike expectations. European short-term rate market ECB rate hike probabilities: Year-end: 80% July: 50% Bank of Japan April hike probability: 50% (according to former BOJ board member Maeda) However, markets may increasingly focus on recession risks rather than rate differentials. 🧭 Summary The current market is dominated by war-related headlines. Key drivers: Oil prices Geopolitical developments U.S. employment data At the same time: Panic selling in equities has eased FX markets have lost clear direction For now, the environment can be summarized as: “Markets move on war headlines and adjust on economic data.” This dynamic is likely to continue in the near term.
March 6, 2026

🗞️ Middle East Conflict Stalemate — Markets Lose Direction / U.S. Jobs Report Tonight 🌍 Market Theme “War × Inflation × Uncertainty” Tensions in the

Read More