With a series of US economic statistics exceeding expectations last week, there was persistent pressure on the dollar along with rising US bond yields. The dollar/yen pair hit the 136 yen level after last weekend’s upswing in the US PCE deflator. The dollar is strong and the yen is weak since the beginning of the year. This week’s market is likely to continue to see the strength and weakness of the US economic statistics from last week. The US ISM manufacturing index on the 1st and the US non-manufacturing index on the 3rd are likely to be the most watched.
As for the yen, it was confirmed that Bank of Japan Governor Ueda’s policy hearing in the Diet last week would continue to ease the situation, and the fact that he did not show any signs of bankruptcy in response to questions from opposition lawmakers seemed to have given the market a sense of security. . There were no disturbances in the policy hearings in the House of Councillors today.
In the overseas market after this, US durable goods orders (preliminary figures) (January), US second-hand home sales index (January), etc. will be announced. Orders for durable goods in the US, which is known for its large fluctuations, are expected to fall by about -4% from the previous month, down from +5.6% in the previous month. On the other hand, the month-on-month rate of change, excluding transport equipment, is expected to settle down from the previous -0.2%. The second-hand home sales contract index is a leading indicator of second-hand home sales. The forecast for January this time is +1.0% from the previous month, which is expected to continue to rise, similar to the previous +2.5%. Although the year-on-year decline is expected to continue by more than 30%, the month-to-month trend shows signs of a slight recovery.
Attention will be paid to the flow of USD after receipt of US durable goods.