The dollar exchange rate has been steady since the beginning of February. First, it reacted to the stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report released in early February. Following this, a series of US economic indicators such as US retail sales and the US consumer price index exceeded forecasts, which supported the dollar exchange rate.
However, the rise in the dollar index remained at a high level last week, fluctuating. The uptrend has come to a halt again this week. It seems necessary to check the strength of each US economic indicator.
Today, the US PMI preliminary figures, the number of US second-hand home sales, etc. will be announced. The preliminary US PMI for February is expected to hit 47.5, up from 46.8 last month. Annualized sales of existing homes in the U.S. are expected to hit about 4.1 million in January, up from 4.02 million in the previous survey. All of these are expected values to underpin movements of the dollar’s strength.
The economic indicators to be announced in overseas markets after this are preliminary PMI figures for the euro area of Germany and France, the United Kingdom, and the United States (February), net public sector debt in the United Kingdom (January), and the German ZEW business sentiment index (February). , Canadian retail sales (December), Canadian consumer price index (January), US pre-owned home sales (January), etc. In addition to the above US economic indicators, there are other notable indicators.
The focus is on the Canadian Consumer Price Index. The Bank of Canada raised its policy rate to 4.5% at its monetary policy meeting in January. The statement suggested a pause in interest rate hikes to assess the effects of previous hikes. The latest consumer price index is likely to be an important touchstone for confirming the effect. As core inflation continues to rise in many countries, what about Canada? The market expects both the core median and core trim to decline by 0.1 percentage points from the previous survey.
Regarding speech events, Riksbank officials such as Swedish Central Bank Deputy Governor Froden and Swedish Central Bank Deputy Governor Olsson will give a series of lectures. The recent increase in core inflation, excluding energy, is likely to reaffirm the possibility of an additional interest rate hike.
In terms of politics, speeches by US President Biden and Russian President Putin are scheduled. It’s been almost a year since the start of the Ukraine war, and his related remarks are drawing attention. Walmart, Home Depot, and Coinbase are among the top companies to watch in US corporate earnings reports.
Today, first of all, pay attention to the Canadian CPI . This is where I want to follow when CAD moves greatly. After that, pay attention to the USD flow at the US PMI .
Today, GBP buying is on fire as the UK’s PMI is already showing good numbers.