Today’s focus is on the US consumer price index. For the recent dollar-yen exchange rate, the proposal for the next Chief Executive and Vice Governor of the Bank of Japan centered on Mr. Ueda has provided a topic, but it seems that the proposal to the Diet today has settled down. Recently, the yen’s depreciation until the previous day has been adjusted, and the dollar/yen pair fell below the 132 yen level.
There is a growing mood in the market to see the results of the US consumer price index after this. Check out the market forecast. The year-on-year growth is expected to slow down from +6.5% in the previous year to +6.2%. Core year-on-year growth is also expected to slow down from +5.7% in the previous survey to +5.5%. On the other hand, month-on-month growth is expected to accelerate from +0.1% in the previous month to +0.5%. The core month-on-month rate of change is expected to be +0.4%, the same level as the previous revision.
It seems that the market expects the above forecasts to outperform the economists’ forecasts. This is because the decline in energy-related items such as gasoline retail prices has come to a halt. The latest U.S. employment statistics show strength in the labor market, and there is also the view that continued upward pressure on wages is likely to lead to secondary inflationary pressure.
It is likely that the market will point out that the figures are expected to be higher than economists’ forecasts. Therefore, the big surprise will be when inflation falls further than expected. However, since it is an index with a high degree of attention, the reaction tends to be sharp. You need to be careful no matter which way you move up or down.
Today, it’s all about riding the flow of the USD after the US Consumer Price Index.
After US Consumer Price Index., I plan to consider taking a position.