Forex Top Team

Exploring the whereabouts of the US recession

In the US Treasury market, the reversal of long-term and short-term interest rate spreads has become even more serious, and there is deep-rooted concern about an economic recession. 2-year and 10-year bond yields are at their highest since the early 1980s.

US Federal Reserve Board (FRB) high-ranking officials’ hawkish remarks strengthened speculation that interest rate hikes will be prolonged, and the two-year bond yield exceeded 4.5%. The strong January jobs report has left the money market in a dovish mood. In the options market, it seems that the movement to factor in the policy interest rate rising to a maximum of 6% continues to be active.

Since the beginning of this year, not only high-tech companies that have increased employment due to the pandemic’s special demand, but also companies whose profit margins have declined due to stagnant demand and soaring costs have become active in reducing employment. However, the effects of job cuts have so far not been seen in employment-related indicators or the economy.

It will take time for the recession to prove itself. Amid hints of a recession in the US bond market, the focus is on when the economy will feel the effects of this year’s job cuts.

(Source: Reuters)

Yesterday’s US stock market fell sharply due to the occurrence of an inverted yield curve.

In the long term, we are thinking of selling the US dollar, but we plan to buy the US dollar for the time being, as there is currently active movement to factor in a rise in the policy interest rate to 6%.

More Insights