This week has been a week of stable risk trends. U.S. economic data has been weak since the beginning of the year, but this week’s preliminary PMI, GDP, durable goods orders and unemployment claims all showed signs of recovery. Although the impact of high inflation is still unpredictable, there seem to be many bright spots, such as moves to restart the economy in China and the resolution of the energy crisis due to the warm winter in Europe. In addition, in the financial results of US companies, IT-related financial results have passed without incident, and the Nasdaq index is strong.
The foreign exchange market shows relatively stable price movements as the movement of risk appetite spreads. While the dollar index maintains the trend of the dollar’s depreciation so far, further downward pressure on the dollar is easing. The dollar-yen and cross-yen exchange rates are underpinned by the strength of the stock market. However, since the beginning of this week, only the AUD/JPY has seen a notable move higher, and as a whole it has remained high. The upside of inflation is behind the Australian dollar buying.
The central banks of the United States, United Kingdom, and Europe will announce their monetary policies next week. The U.S. jobs report is due to be released over the weekend. The US FOMC will raise interest rates by 25 basis points, and the ECB and the Bank of England will raise interest rates by 50 basis points.
Today, the US PCE deflator, US personal income and expenditures, etc. are scheduled to be announced. If the degree of divergence between market expectations and results becomes large, the market is likely to react nervously at first. That’s it.
There is no trend this week than I thought, and it tends to be a range. Losses continue, so I want to trade carefully.
Basically, we plan to change our mindset that the market is difficult to trend and switch to trades that aim for a range.
