Yesterday, the dollar-yen and cross-yen fell while US stocks fell sharply. It was in the form of so-called risk aversion yen buying. The trigger was the weakness in a range of indicators, including the US Producer Price Index, US retail sales and US industrial production. The pattern so far has been a buying reaction in U.S. equities as a slowdown in inflation data leads to a slower pace of rate hikes by the Fed. I would like to pay attention to changes in the market reaction here. It is also earnings season for US stocks, and there are many reports of job cuts. It is also pointed out that the market’s interest will shift to trends in the real US economy.
Today, the number of U.S. unemployment insurance applications (01/08 – 01/14), the number of U.S. housing starts (December), the number of U.S. housing permits (December), the U.S. Philadelphia Fed business index (January), etc. were announced. be done. First, let’s take a look at trends in the housing market. Construction starts are expected to slow, but building permits are expected to pick up. Since the number of building permits is seen as a leading indicator, if it surpasses, it may lead to expectations for a future recovery. The weekly MBA mortgage application index released yesterday showed a sharp recovery, reflecting lower loan rates.
The dollar-yen exchange rate was sold back to the 127 yen level in overseas markets yesterday. After that, the top price was restrained around 129 yen, and today’s Tokyo market has seen a scene of falling below the 128 yen level again. It has also been pointed out that the downturn in the Australian employment statistics has led to the depreciation of the Australian dollar and yen, and that the yen has rebounded from the rapid depreciation of the yen after the decision meeting of the Bank of Japan. If the currency falls below the near-term support level of 127.50 in overseas markets after this, the yen is expected to appreciate further, so we should be careful.
USD selling continues today. Yesterday’s USDHCF selling has already stopped out, so the current position is buying GOLD and selling USDJPY.