Since the start of the 2023 market, the dollar/yen has risen, and the accompanying rise in the cross-yen has been conspicuous. The dollar/yen has bottomed out at the 129.58 level and is currently rising to the 134 yen level.
With the start of the new year market, Chinese and European stocks have been performing well, and the market’s risk sentiment has turned around.
It has also been pointed out that yesterday’s improvement in the US ADP employment statistics and the number of new unemployment insurance claims led to dollar buying. A strong US labor market raises the risk of prolonged overall US inflation through wage inflation. There is widespread speculation that interest rate hikes will be prolonged and that interest rate cuts will be postponed for some time. This has resulted in the pressure of a stronger dollar.
And just now, it was reported from multiple sources that the BOJ would not rush to re-correct the YCC. As a result, yen selling has accelerated.
The volatility of the dollar-yen exchange rate is at a high level of 17.5% for the week and 14.7% for the month. The market is strongly aware of the series of US economic statistics released in the near future and the decision-making meeting of the Bank of Japan on the 18th as event risks. It speaks to the intensity of price movements in the spot market, and reactions to ingredients tend to be strong.
Under such circumstances, today is the announcement of the US employment statistics. The number of non-agricultural employees is expected to increase by about 200,000, a decrease from the previous increase of 263,000. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.7%. Employment numbers are notoriously difficult to predict, and results often deviate from expectations. In particular, we would like to pay attention to the reaction of the dollar-yen exchange rate.
Today, I would like to keep up with the movements after the release of the US employment statistics.