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At the end of a turbulent year, there is also concern about yen appreciation amid thin sales

After the turbulent market development at the beginning of the year, the price movement has been relatively calm today. After this, the US FOMC meeting minutes are scheduled to be released in the NY market, and it seems that the mood to see the results is spreading. The US jobs report is due to be released on Friday. Market liquidity is gradually returning, and it is expected that the market will be based on the original fundamentals.

The economic indicators to be announced in overseas markets after this are the Swiss consumer price index (December), Hong Kong retail sales (November), and non-manufacturing PMI figures for France, Germany, the Eurozone, etc. (December). , US MBA mortgage application index (12/24 – 12/30), US ISM manufacturing index (December), US job openings (November), etc. The market forecast for the US ISM manufacturing index (December) is expected to be around 48.5, slightly lower than the previous 49.0. However, if the interest rate does not drop significantly, it may be viewed as proof that the economy is somewhat cooling due to the interest rate hike.

The minutes of the US FOMC meeting are attracting attention in relation to the remarks event. It will be the content of the meeting that slowed the pace of rate hikes to 50bp from 75bp for the fourth time in a row. On the other hand, the terminal rate has been raised, and it seems likely that interest rate hikes will continue at a normal pace for a certain amount of time in the future. The point is whether the market can be confident that a hard landing can be avoided.

Both USDJPY and GBPJPY were sold at a loss, and they were at the mercy of the volatility at the beginning of the year. However, the JPY continues to sell. It is assumed that JPY selling will ignite once the liquidity settles down.

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🗞️ Middle East Conflict Stalemate — Markets Lose Direction / U.S. Jobs Report Tonight 🌍 Market Theme “War × Inflation × Uncertainty” Tensions in the Middle East remain high. Both sides — the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other — continue to signal their willingness to prolong the conflict, with no clear signs of resolution. The situation has effectively entered a phase of strategic stalemate, where each side is testing the other’s endurance. 🛢 Oil as the Key Barometer To gauge the market impact of the Middle East crisis, crude oil futures have become the most important indicator. Key concerns include: Risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz Potential disruptions to global oil supply Rising inflationary pressure However: The panic selling in equities has somewhat eased The FX market currently lacks strong directional momentum 💱 FX Market Basic structure Geopolitical crisis → USD buying But at the moment: Position adjustments Headline-driven reactions Interest rate expectations are all interacting. As a result, the market is trading in a nervous range-bound environment, with no decisive catalyst for a sustained USD rally. 🇺🇸 Trump Administration Developments Policies from President Donald Trump are also attracting market attention. Higher oil prices could lead to: Stronger inflation pressure Rising political dissatisfaction ahead of midterm elections According to reports, the administration is considering measures such as: Restrictions on Russian oil exports Intervention in oil futures markets 👉 These steps may indicate efforts to find an exit path from the conflict. Meanwhile, reports suggest that Iran may also be experiencing depletion of missiles and weapon systems. 📊 Tonight’s Major Event 🇺🇸 U.S. Employment Report (Nonfarm Payrolls) Market expectations: Indicator Forecast Previous Nonfarm Payrolls +55K +130K Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.3% Released simultaneously: U.S. Retail Sales Indicator Forecast Month-over-month -0.3% Ex-auto 0.0% 👉 The key focus will be deviation from expectations. However: The approaching weekend Ongoing war-related headlines may limit the durability of any market reaction. 📊 Other Economic Data Eurozone Final GDP U.S. Business Inventories Canada Ivey PMI Brazil Industrial Production 🎙 Central Bank Events Scheduled speakers include: Mary Daly Jeffrey Schmid Susan Collins Piero Cipollone Isabel Schnabel Additionally, a global central bank conference will discuss: “The U.S. dollar’s role as a safe-haven asset.” 📈 New Market Theme: Rate Hike Expectations The chain reaction: Middle East conflict → Higher oil prices → Rising inflation is bringing back interest rate hike expectations. European short-term rate market ECB rate hike probabilities: Year-end: 80% July: 50% Bank of Japan April hike probability: 50% (according to former BOJ board member Maeda) However, markets may increasingly focus on recession risks rather than rate differentials. 🧭 Summary The current market is dominated by war-related headlines. Key drivers: Oil prices Geopolitical developments U.S. employment data At the same time: Panic selling in equities has eased FX markets have lost clear direction For now, the environment can be summarized as: “Markets move on war headlines and adjust on economic data.” This dynamic is likely to continue in the near term.
March 6, 2026

🗞️ Middle East Conflict Stalemate — Markets Lose Direction / U.S. Jobs Report Tonight 🌍 Market Theme “War × Inflation × Uncertainty” Tensions in the

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