After the turbulent market development at the beginning of the year, the price movement has been relatively calm today. After this, the US FOMC meeting minutes are scheduled to be released in the NY market, and it seems that the mood to see the results is spreading. The US jobs report is due to be released on Friday. Market liquidity is gradually returning, and it is expected that the market will be based on the original fundamentals.
The economic indicators to be announced in overseas markets after this are the Swiss consumer price index (December), Hong Kong retail sales (November), and non-manufacturing PMI figures for France, Germany, the Eurozone, etc. (December). , US MBA mortgage application index (12/24 – 12/30), US ISM manufacturing index (December), US job openings (November), etc. The market forecast for the US ISM manufacturing index (December) is expected to be around 48.5, slightly lower than the previous 49.0. However, if the interest rate does not drop significantly, it may be viewed as proof that the economy is somewhat cooling due to the interest rate hike.
The minutes of the US FOMC meeting are attracting attention in relation to the remarks event. It will be the content of the meeting that slowed the pace of rate hikes to 50bp from 75bp for the fourth time in a row. On the other hand, the terminal rate has been raised, and it seems likely that interest rate hikes will continue at a normal pace for a certain amount of time in the future. The point is whether the market can be confident that a hard landing can be avoided.
Both USDJPY and GBPJPY were sold at a loss, and they were at the mercy of the volatility at the beginning of the year. However, the JPY continues to sell. It is assumed that JPY selling will ignite once the liquidity settles down.