The beginning of the week has started quietly. Last weekend’s U.S. jobs report showed a higher-than-expected increase in employment, while the unemployment rate rose more than expected. However, there was also an impression that the firmness of the employment market had weakened somewhat. The stock market remained strong, and there was a history of dollar selling. In the US CME FedWatch, a 50bp rate hike at the December FOMC meeting is dominant at 61.5%. A 75 basis point rate hike is down to 38.5%.
However, the pace of interest rate hikes will continue to depend on economic data, and will likely depend on the results of the US consumer price index (October), which will be released on the 10th of this week. At present, the forecast is +7.9% from the previous year, which is a slowdown from +8.2% in the previous survey. The core year-on-year growth rate excluding food and energy is expected to be +6.5%, which is almost the same level as the previous +6.6%.
At the beginning of the week, the Oceania market opened with a jump in the dollar-buying direction. With the number of new coronavirus infections rising again in China, the view that the zero-corona policy will be firmly maintained has aroused a sense of caution. However, Hong Kong stocks showed a solid performance today, and the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 4% at one point. Movements of risk caution in the foreign exchange market have also come to a halt. Currently, the dollar and the yen are moving at a weaker level, and the market has calmed down since the beginning of the week.
Economic indicators to be announced in overseas markets after this include the Swiss employment statistics (October) and the German industrial production index (September). With no plans to release major US, UK or other economic indicators, it looks like it will be difficult to get a clue.
The pair will continue to target the US dollar selling phase. Earlier, I bought AUDUSD and GOLD because I wanted to sell the US dollar.