This week, the US ISM manufacturing index and JOLT job openings were weak at the beginning of the week, and the market’s expectations for a significant US interest rate hike have slightly receded. Higher stock prices, lower bond yields, weaker dollar and risk concerns eased. However, this movement did not last long, and caution is spreading again ahead of the weekend’s US employment report. The comparatively strong figures in the US ADP employment statistics and the ISM non-manufacturing index, which were released after the middle of the week, also had an impact.
A series of U.S. financial officials have recently said that the inflation response is still halfway through. He threw a hawkish remark at the market, which was shaken by the results of economic indicators. The optimistic mood at the beginning of the week has disappeared, and the US employment statistics are approaching as stocks fall again, bond yields rise, and the dollar strengthens.
The US employment statistics for September will be announced at 9:30 pm Japan time. Together with next week’s US consumer price index, it is an important factor for US economic conditions and future US interest rate hikes. US Fed officials have indicated that they are in a state of full employment, and any further strength seems to be seen as a negative for controlling inflation. In that sense, a slight deterioration in the unemployment rate and a slowdown in wage growth are expected to lead to reactions such as buying US bonds and higher stock prices. On the other hand, too strong employment growth is likely to lead to selling of US Treasury bonds and falling stock prices. Since it is a three-point check of the number of employees, the unemployment rate, and wages, the market reaction is likely to be complicated if the trends do not match.
The USD flow has been inconsistent this week, and trades have not been able to keep up with the flow.
Either way, pay attention to the possibility of a large USD flow after the US employment statistics.