There are many notable US-related events today. In terms of economic data, US retail sales for July will be released. It shows how high inflation affects the purchasing power of consumers. According to most market forecasts, the month-on-month growth is expected to slow to +0.1% from the previous +1.0%. The core month-on-month rate is expected to slow down to -0.1% from the previous +1.0%. Both are expected to show significant declines.
The US FOMC meeting minutes will be published at 3:00 am on the 18th Japan time. The latest economic data has swayed expectations of rate hikes in the market. Against strong employment data, a series of inflation indicators such as the consumer price index show slower growth than last time. As for the rate hike speculation at the next September FOMC meeting, a slight 0.50% rate hike is dominant in the market. The weaving degree is about 0.75% 40% against 0.50% 60%. The minutes of the FOMC meeting are expected to repeat a strong stance toward curbing inflation, and there is a possibility that expectations for a 0.75% interest rate hike will rise again.
Around the time of the meeting minutes, FRB Director Bowman will give a lecture. Topics include technology and financial services, COVID-19 and the role of women in the economy. Although it is not directly related to monetary policy, there will be a Q&A session this time. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole meeting next week will be a high-profile event. Today’s series of U.S. events could have mixed strengths and weaknesses.
Recently, the results of economic indicators tend to cause the USD to move significantly, so first of all, pay attention to the results of US July retail sales .
I would like to keep up with the movements of the USD after this.