The dollar yen rose to the 139.39 level yesterday. Eurodollar fell to the 0.9952 level. After that, the dollar’s appreciation stopped. This week, the US consumer price index rose 9.1% year-on-year, higher than expected, and the market is hoping for a 1.00 percentage point hike at the next FOMC.
However, US financial officials were wary of excessive expectations for a rate hike in the market. Fed director Waller seems to have set a 0.75% rate hike as the basic scenario, and has been a little cautious about the 1.00% rate hike. Governor Mester and Governor Daily have not yet been willing to support a 0.75% rate hike and actively recommend a 1.00% rate hike. The market is somewhat blunting the brunt of dollar buying.
As a US inflation index, the import price index will be announced today. The consumer price index and producer price index have already been announced, and the market reaction is likely to be limited if there is not much divergence from the market.
Attention is likely to be focused on US retail sales and industrial production. Retail sales are expected to accelerate. Industrial production is expected to be sluggish. As for consumption trend-related indicators, the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index will be released along with retail sales. The market forecast is around 50, which is about the same as the previous time. There are concerns about how much consumption-related factors are affected by high inflation, but the numbers are relatively optimistic at the forecast stage. Regarding production, the New York Fed Manufacturing Index will be announced along with industrial production. This is expected to decrease slightly from the previous time.
All positions from the day before yesterday are stopped out. This week, I read too much and the loss is continuing. Simply speaking, the result was to attack by just buying CHFJPY.
In the future, I plan to simply think about riding a big flow without going against the flow.
