The results of the ECB Board of Directors will be announced today. This time, the policy interest rate is expected to remain unchanged. However, the start of rate hikes from July is already being factored in. The strength of future rate hike routes will be the focus of attention.
Hawk members such as the German Federation Bank, the Dutch Central Bank, and the Austrian Central Bank have stated that a 0.5 percentage point rate hike is necessary. On the other hand, the main scenario is to raise interest rates by 0.25 percentage points from ECB President Christine Lagarde.
In this week’s economic forecasts by the World Bank and OECD, slowing growth and rising inflation are a set, and it is quite difficult to steer the central bank. The ECB has long reiterated that flexibility is important, and it is expected that the rate hike will change depending on the data. The euro is likely to react sensitively to the strength and weakness of the ECB President Christine Lagarde.
The depreciation of the yen is accelerating especially this week. The background is that the BOJ’s continued easing stance is in sharp contrast to other central banks’ monetary tightening stance. If the market is impressed by the emphasis on inflation alerts at today’s ECB board, the dollar-yen pair could rise further along with the euro-yen pair.
ECB policy rate & statement released
ECB President Christine Lagarde Press Conference
After the Lagarde Governor’s press conference, if there is a big move in the EUR, I would like to ride it.
