The market at the beginning of the week is trading relatively gently. The dollar-yen pair has been volatile last week, but has settled in the 122-yen range after a slight swing in US employment statistics last weekend. Japanese stocks and Asian stocks at the beginning of the week also remained firm, as US stocks were generally strong last weekend. US stock futures and after-hours trading are also small. The supply and demand of crude oil has been unstable due to the situation in Ukraine, but since last weekend, NY crude oil futures (WTI) have settled below $ 100.
After the announcement of US employment statistics last weekend, we are in the situation of searching for the next clue. At the moment, the market is factoring in a 0.5% rate hike of just under 70% for the next US FOMC on May 4. As for the situation in Ukraine, there has been no rapid development and it is in a stalemate. As the devastation around Kyiv after the withdrawal of the Russian army became clear, criticisms of war crimes spread from the West, and voices for strengthening sanctions are increasing. Given the information that the Russian side is concentrating its forces in eastern Ukraine, what kind of action will it take next? The market is waiting.
Due to the tension between Russia and the EU, the selling pressure on the EUR is increasing. As long as this situation continues, it is expected that the currencies of resource-rich countries will be easy to buy, and that AUD and CAD will continue to move steadily.