The ECB25bp rate hike factor in the money market has been delayed from 12 to next year. The background is that there are concerns that the situation in Ukraine will become more serious and protracted. A ceasefire talks between Ukraine and Russia are underway, and it has been confirmed that they will continue in the future. However, the Russian invasion is intensifying. “We will continue our operations in Ukraine until we reach our goal,” the Russian defense minister said. Selling pressure is once again on the euro. There is also yen buying pressure to avoid risk in the dollar yen.
Looking at the current situation, it is reasonable to think that the rate hike will be far away. EUR selling pressure is expected to increase in the future.