In the Tokyo market at the beginning of the week, the dollar-yen pair was in the low 115 yen range, the euro dollar was in the low 1.14 range, the pound-dollar pair was in the low 1.35 range, and the Australian dollar / dollar pair was in the high 0.70 range. Both have been trading while maintaining the high dollar level since last Friday.
However, the flow of the entire dollar is unclear. Until last Thursday, dollar selling was predominant. Central banks in Europe, the United Kingdom, and Australia have shown a hawkish stance, and there have been moves to offset the US FOMC’s observations of rate hikes.
As for the US FOMC itself, in the first half of last week, several US financial officials expressed a negative view on the sharp rate hike of 0.5% in March. However, as the US employment statistics on the weekend showed more employment than expected and wage increases accelerated, the market’s expectations of a sharp rate hike were rekindled at once.
(Personally, I don’t think the reaction to the US employment statistics will last long. I would like to confirm the figures at the beginning of March.)
The point of this week’s dollar market is whether the US FOMC rate hike in March will be 0.25% or 0.5% at a stretch, and consensus building in the market will be the point.
The US Consumer Price Index will be announced on the 10th. Last December, it showed a high increase of 7.0% from the previous year, but this time it is expected to be 7.3% for January. NY crude oil futures are currently around $ 92, and the momentum of the rise is slow to subside. If inflation seems to be reaffirmed, it is likely that we will be more likely to factor in a significant rate hike in the market.
So far, from the good employment statistics on the weekend, we are looking at buying USD. If there is a place to buy USDJPY, I plan to buy it.
Others are also aiming to buy EURJPY from last week’s ECB rate hike observations.
