The US FOMC in the middle of the week, followed by the British Central Bank and the ECB, the Bank of Japan on the weekend, and the final monetary policy announcements of major countries / regions this year. The contrast between the United States and the United Kingdom, which are relatively hawkish, and the ECB, which is cautious about it, and the Bank of Japan is the driving force behind the direction of the exchange rate.
However, the spread of Omicron strains has been highlighted in the market at once. Yesterday, the UK’s first death from an Omicron strain was reported. British Prime Minister Johnson has questioned the traditional view that the Omicron strain will not be severe and has stated that it will accelerate booster vaccination. According to the Secretary of State for Health, Omicron strains will become mainstream in the next 48 hours.
Also, in the United States, some states have announced that they will be obliged to wear masks, and the tension is increasing. It has been reported that the total number of deaths from the new coronavirus infection in the United States has reached 800,000. The keyword death is rekindling the market with anxiety.
In the US stock market yesterday, all three major indexes such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell sharply. Although it cannot be said to be a panic business, risk aversion has spread, with the VIX rising to over 20 again. Yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds dropped from around 1.50% to the 1.40% level at one point. NY crude oil futures were bought up to $ 73 and then dropped to the $ 70 level at one point. In today’s Tokyo and Asian markets as well, stock prices are generally depreciating.
The focus will be on whether it will affect the monetary policy of major countries, including the announcement of the results of the US FOMC tomorrow. High inflation continues, especially in the United States, and the risk of late tapering loss is high. It seems that it will follow the prescribed route. However, depending on the situation of Omicron stocks, there may be room to adjust the tightening reins.
The UK, where deaths from Omicron strains were reported, is subtle. The degree of factoring in rate hikes in the money markets is weakening. However, the inflation rate in the UK is also high. It may be better to prepare for the results on both the hard and soft sides.
In the overseas market after this, speculation seems to be mixed up. First of all, it is likely to be a move that looks at the infection situation and risk aversion trends in the market.
Although it is okay, the spread of Omicron is rapid, so it is difficult to move up and down with risk aversion.
The dollar yen also tends to be in the range. Below is 113.00 with optional cuts on the 14th, 15th and 17th. Above, there are intermittent sell orders on 114.10-20 and large options with a 16-day cut on 114.25-50, which is assumed to be resistance.
Eurodollar also tends to be in the range. The bottom is supported around 1.1200, and the top is $ 1.1400 with a large option of 15, 17, 16 and 20 days cut, and this is assumed to be resistance.
Currently, the power balance at 15 minutes is
CHF> EUR> USD> JPY> GBP> NZD> AUD> CAD