In the overseas market yesterday, the trend of dollar appreciation has been adjusted. Especially the pound dollar was strong. The background is that the rise in the UK inflation rate has strengthened the expectations of early rate hikes by the UK and Central Banks. The strength of the UK employment statistics the day before also supported the bullish view. The euro dollar has also risen, and the dollar’s appreciation and the euro’s depreciation have stopped. The Australian dollar has a limited repulsive force compared to European currencies. It seems that the sharp rebound in the crude oil market has weighed on it.
The dollar yen could not be put on the 115 yen level. After that, it temporarily fell below the 114 yen level and fell back by about 1 yen. The cross yen has also fallen overall, and the dollar-yen pair seems to have been strong in terms of yen buying as well as the adjustment of the dollar’s appreciation.
US stocks were weak in the NY market yesterday. NY crude oil futures fell from around $ 80 to the $ 77 level. In December, it was reported that crude oil supply was expected to exceed demand, and US President Joe Biden called on countries to release oil reserves. In major countries other than Japan, the infection of the new coronavirus has spread again, and it seems that there were concerns that the future economic recovery would slow down.
Looking at the daily chart of the dollar index, the market has continued to rise at a rapid pace since November 10, when the US consumer price index was announced. However, yesterday, after rising to a higher level, it was unable to maintain 96 units and fell back. It shows the upper beard. In many cases, the conversion from the overheated market may cause an upper whiskers, showing a price movement pattern that is easy to adjust even in the short term.
Amid the mix of adjustments to the dollar’s appreciation and yen buying pressure, where will the dollar / yen pair break out from around 114 yen? The situation is such that we cannot take our eyes off the trends in stocks and crude oil.
It seems that the wall of 115.00 was thicker than expected. I thought that if it exceeded 115.00, it would give momentum to buying, but it fell sharply. With this, the atmosphere of the dollar alone has calmed down once. It is not expected that the dollar will return to a stronger dollar this week.