The market is less alert to the risks at hand. In the NY market the day before, the US ISM manufacturing business index was 52.6, which was stronger than expected. It was also good news that the vaccine development against the new coronavirus is progressing. The second wave of the spread of infection continues, but yesterday it looks like it has been overwhelmed by good news.
It is likely that the US employment statistics will be announced in the middle of the time when the risk trend is relatively favorable. According to US employment statistics in June, the number of employees in the non-farm sector is expected to increase by 305.8 million. It is expected to show a significant recovery following the increase of 259,000 in May last year. The unemployment rate is also expected to fall from 13.3% to 12.5%.
June Changes in the number of employees in the non-agricultural sector [May-to-Month] Last time 2.59 million people Forecast 300,000 people
June Unemployment rate last time 13.3% forecast 12.3%
June Average hourly wage [Compared with the previous month] Last time -1.0% Forecast -0.7%
June average hourly wage [YoY change] Previous 6.7% Expected 5.3%
I expected that the risk-off situation would continue from the new Corona 2nd sect, but this week’s market, US stocks have been firm.
The US employment statistics will make a big difference, but both risk-on and risk-off are extremely difficult.
If there is a movement after employment statistics,
Major currency pairs such as EURUSD and USDJPY that are relatively easy to understand
Currently, the power balance in 15 minutes is
GBP = NZD> EUR = CHF> AUD> JPY> USD> CAD