📘 BOJ Rate-Hike Speculation Drives Yen Strength, But London Short-Covering Pauses the Decline
📘 BOJ Rate-Hike Speculation Drives Yen Strength, But London Short-Covering Pauses the Decline Markets Enter “Wait-and-See Mode” Ahead of FOMC, PCE and North American Data ■ 1. Tokyo Session: BOJ December Hike Speculation Remains the Dominant Theme On Monday afternoon, Reuters reported—citing government sources—that: “The BOJ is highly likely to raise rates in December, and […]
📘 Quiet Tension Ahead of the FOMC — A Directionless Start to the Week
📘 Quiet Tension Ahead of the FOMC — A Directionless Start to the Week USD/JPY trapped in the low 155s with no clear trend 【1】Overall Market: A “FOMC-Waiting” Session With Limited Activity The new week opened with extremely limited market-moving catalysts. In Europe, only German industrial production was notable No major U.S. data during NY […]
📉 BoJ Rate-Hike Speculation Keeps Fueling Yen Strength; NY Session Hinges on PCE & Labor Data
📉 BoJ Rate-Hike Speculation Keeps Fueling Yen Strength; NY Session Hinges on PCE & Labor Data ■ 1. Market Overview — “BoJ Turning Hawkish × Fed Turning Dovish” = Yen Strength / Dollar Weakness Tokyo trading once again saw broad JPY buying. Persistent headlines pointing to a December BoJ rate hike, combined with U.S. […]
💹 USD at a Turning Point — Today’s ADP × ISM Will Decide the Trend
💹 USD at a Turning Point — Today’s ADP × ISM Will Decide the Trend 1. USD firmly in a downtrend The Dollar Index (DXY) has broken below both the 10-day and 21-day MAs, confirming a clean shift into a bearish trend. The move lower is driven by three pillars: 85% probability of a December […]
💹 USD/JPY: Rebounds Remain Limited — The Underlying Bias Is Still Down
💹 USD/JPY: Rebounds Remain Limited — The Underlying Bias Is Still Down — Policy shifts in both Japan and the US keep the pair under heavy pressure 【1】Previous Session: Sharp drop to high-154s → mild rebound in NY USD/JPY fell into the 154.80s, driven by a rare combination of factors: Bitcoin crash → risk-off yen […]
💹 USD/JPY: Downside Risks Becoming Increasingly Clear
💹 USD/JPY: Downside Risks Becoming Increasingly Clear — Policy Expectations in Japan and the U.S. Reverse Simultaneously, Narrowing the Rate Differential** 1. USD/JPY: Diverging Policy Directions Increase Downside Pressure In today’s overseas session, the environment calls for heightened caution over further downside in USD/JPY. ■ BOJ: December Rate-Hike Expectations Surge Governor Ueda signaled a clear […]
💹 Liquidity Thins on U.S. Black Friday
💹 Liquidity Thins on U.S. Black Friday — CME outage halts parts of trading while Europe faces a data-heavy session led by Germany and France 【1】Lower Liquidity on U.S. Black Friday Following yesterday’s full U.S. Thanksgiving holiday,today is Black Friday, with shortened U.S. trading hours. Many traders are off on holiday Liquidity is thin and […]
💹 Dollar Gently Rebounds in a Quiet Holiday Market
💹 Dollar Gently Rebounds in a Quiet Holiday Market — With the U.S. shut for Thanksgiving, FX moves are dominated by position-adjustments. USD/JPY drifts lower with a heavy top. 【1】Thanksgiving Shuts Down U.S. Markets — Expect an Ultra-Quiet Session Today’s central theme is simple: U.S. markets are fully closed for Thanksgiving. Stocks and bonds are […]
💹 Dollar Selling Pressure Gradually Intensifies
💹 Dollar Selling Pressure Gradually Intensifies — A volatile day driven by soaring U.S. rate-cut expectations, renewed BoJ hawkish bets, and speculation surrounding the U.K. budget 【1】U.S.: Market Enters “Rate-Cut Front-Running Mode” A series of cautious comments from Fed officials pushedDecember rate-cut expectations to around 85% (CME basis) —a dramatic shift from last week’s 30% […]
✅ Rationale for EUR Buy & Oil Sell
✅ Rationale for EUR Buy & Oil Sell 🔵 1. Progress in Ukraine Peace Talks → Lower European Risk → EUR Buying Ukraine has agreed to the U.S.-proposed 19-point peace framework. U.S. and Russian officials reportedly held secret talks in Abu Dhabi,and U.S. officials are “optimistic” about a deal. As geopolitical risks in Europe decline— […]