๐ U.S. August CPI and Weekly Jobless Claims
๐ U.S. August CPI and Weekly Jobless Claims CPI (Consumer Price Index) MoM: +0.4% (double the previous monthโs pace) YoY: +2.9% (+0.2pp vs prior month, highest since January 2025) Core CPI (ex-food & energy): +0.3% MoM, +3.1% YoY (in line with forecasts) Key Drivers: Housing +0.4% (accounting for ~โ of total increase) Food +0.5% Energy […]
๐ฑ Focus on U.S. CPI and ECB Meeting as Markets Gauge Rate-Cut Outlook
๐ฑ Focus on U.S. CPI and ECB Meeting as Markets Gauge Rate-Cut Outlook โ Key Drivers U.S. CPI (August) The softer-than-expected U.S. PPI release reignited expectations of disinflation. If CPI also prints weak, speculation for a September Fed rate cut will strengthen further. According to CME FedWatch, current probabilities for the September FOMC are: 25bp […]
๐ U.S. PPI Scenarios and FX Impact
๐ U.S. PPI Scenarios and FX Impact ๐ฝ Below expectations (disinflationary signal) Stronger rate-cut expectations, accelerated dollar selling. USD/JPY: Risk of decline into the 146.30โ146.20 zone. EUR/USD: Potential test above 1.1750. โก๏ธ In line with expectations (neutral outcome) Largely priced in, market reaction limited. USD/JPY: Range-bound around 147.00. EUR/USD: Sideways near 1.1700. ๐ผ Above expectations […]
๐ Focus on U.S. Employment Benchmark Revision โ Dollar Selling Pressure Persists Amid Nervous Market
๐ Focus on U.S. Employment Benchmark Revision โ Dollar Selling Pressure Persists Amid Nervous Market A key event for the U.S. labor market is approaching.Later today, the annual benchmark revision of U.S. nonfarm payrolls will be released. Last year, the data was revised down by roughly 820,000 jobs, shocking the market. This year, another sharp […]
๐ Market Environment Summary: Dollar Selling vs. Political Risks
๐ Market Environment Summary: Dollar Selling vs. Political Risks ๐บ๐ธ United States: Growing Pressure on the Dollar Last weekโs U.S. jobs report came in weaker than expected, cementing expectations for a rate cut at the September FOMC. Some market participants are even speculating on the possibility of a 50bp move.If tomorrowโs annual revisions to the […]
๐ Key Events Today: U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls & Canadian Jobs Report
๐ Key Events Today: U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls & Canadian Jobs Report ๐ต United States โ NFP in Focus Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP):Forecast: +75k (previous +73k)๐ Dollar likely to swing sharply depending on the degree of surprise. Unemployment Rate: 4.3% (previous 4.2%) Average Hourly Earnings:MoM: +0.3% (previous +0.3%)YoY: +3.8% (previous +3.9%) Weak results could shift market expectations […]
๐ ADP Employment Report (August) โ All Eyes on Fridayโs Nonfarm Payrolls
๐ ADP Employment Report (August) โ All Eyes on Fridayโs Nonfarm Payrolls ๐ Market Overview Tomorrow brings the release of the August U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP). Last monthโs NFP came in below expectations, with May and June revised sharply lower. This raised questions over the reliability of the data and had a major market impact. […]
๐ฑ Market Notes & Strategy โ U.S. JOLTs Job Openings
๐ฑ Market Notes & Strategy โ U.S. JOLTs Job Openings ๐น Market Overview USD/JPY: Stalled just below 149. Currently mid-148s.โ Strong awareness of government/BoJ intervention zone (149โ150). Dollar Index (DXY): Rose to 98.6, then eased back to 98.2. Pound Selling Leads USD Buying: U.K. fiscal concerns triggered sharp GBP/USD drop โ spillover into broader dollar […]
๐ฑ FX Market Shaken Ahead of U.S. Jobs Data | ISM Uptick & Sterling Selloff in Focus
๐ฑ FX Market Shaken Ahead of U.S. Jobs Data | ISM Uptick & Sterling Selloff in Focus ๐ Global Market Environment U.S. and Canadian markets were closed yesterday for Labor Day; liquidity was thin. This weekโs focus is squarely on Fridayโs U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP). The last NFP shocked markets with major downward revisions, cementing […]
๐ Market Overview | U.S. Holiday for Labor Day, Focus on Fridayโs NFP
๐ Market Overview | U.S. Holiday for Labor Day, Focus on Fridayโs NFP ๐ฑ FX & Commodities U.S. and Canadian markets closed for Labor Day โ low liquidity, wait-and-see mood. Gold surged near $3,500, driven by: Geopolitical risks Concerns over Fed independence De-dollarization flows Main event this week: U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) on Friday. Market […]