New Zealand Dollar/US Dollar (NZD/USD) Buy: Focus Currency and Technical Analysis (1-Hour Chart) October 11, 2024
Euro/US Dollar (EUR/USD) Strong Buy
The EUR/USD pair is showing mixed movements around 1.0935, trading near its lowest point since August 13th. European investors are currently focused on Germany’s inflation statistics. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September in Germany has remained at 1.6% year-on-year and is expected to show no change month-on-month at 0.0%. Meanwhile, the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) increased by 1.8% year-on-year but decreased by 0.1% month-on-month.
Today, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) is set to be released, with expectations for a year-on-year decline from 1.7% to 1.6% and a month-on-month decline from 0.2% to 0.1%. The core PPI, excluding food and energy, may adjust from 2.4% to 2.7% year-on-year.
Yesterday, the US CPI for September was released, showing a slowdown from 2.5% to 2.4% year-on-year, falling short of the expected 2.3%, while month-on-month, it unexpectedly increased by 0.2%. The core CPI rose from 3.2% to 3.3%, exceeding market expectations. Today’s release of the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for October is expected to show a slight increase from 70.1 to 70.8 points.
British Pound/US Dollar (GBP/USD) Strong Sell
The GBP/USD pair has slightly declined and is testing the 1.3050 level. Yesterday, it reached a low not seen since September 11th as the market reacted to US inflation statistics. The US CPI for September showed a year-on-year slowdown to 2.4%, not reaching the expected 2.3%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%. Meanwhile, the core CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-on-year.
As a result, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve implementing further monetary easing in November has decreased, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut estimated at around 80.0%. Additionally, initial jobless claims in the US have increased more than expected, putting some pressure on the dollar.
In the UK, today’s GDP is expected to show a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, improving from zero growth the previous month, but industrial production fell short of expectations at -1.6% year-on-year. Manufacturing output also declined by -0.3% year-on-year, and the services index slowed to 0.1%.
New Zealand Dollar/US Dollar (NZD/USD) Buy
The NZD/USD pair is showing moderate gains, continuing the bullish momentum from the previous day. It is attempting to break above the psychological resistance level of 0.6100, supported by favorable macroeconomic indicators from New Zealand. The Manufacturing PMI for September increased from 46.1 to 46.9, and the Food Price Index rose from 0.2% to 0.5%.
On the other hand, the release of US inflation statistics has slightly decreased the likelihood of the Fed easing in November. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut rates by 50 basis points as expected, bringing the rate to 4.75%.
US Dollar/Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Buy
The USD/JPY pair is showing a slight increase and is trading around 148.70. The previous day, the pair retreated slightly from its highest level since August 2nd after the release of US macroeconomic indicators. The US CPI for September showed a year-on-year slowdown to 2.4%, falling short of the expected 2.3%, while the core CPI rose to 3.3% year-on-year.
As a result, the likelihood of further rate cuts by the Fed in November has decreased, with the market anticipating a 25 basis point cut at around 80.0% probability. Meanwhile, Japan’s economic indicators reveal that the domestic corporate price index for September increased to 2.8% year-on-year, indicating rising inflation risks.
Gold/US Dollar (XAU/USD) Strong Buy
Gold is showing a robust recovery from the low on September 20th, indicating strong upward momentum. However, expectations for the Fed’s monetary easing have limited the extent of the rise. The US CPI for September exceeded expectations, reducing the likelihood of a rate cut in November.
Additionally, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are ongoing, with Israel conducting limited military operations in southern Lebanon since October 1st. This situation has increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
