Technical Analysis
October 16, 2026
Overview
Today’s main themes are improving conditions in sterling and yen crosses, relative strength in the Swiss franc, and rebounds in gold and European and U.S. equity indices.
GBP/USD and GBP/JPY have improved to a bullish daily bias. The additional CHF/JPY and CAD/JPY readings also show Strong Buy on the 15-minute and hourly charts, and Buy on the daily chart. AUD/JPY has rebounded, but its daily chart remains in Strong Sell, underscoring uneven improvement across yen crosses.
USD/JPY is in Strong Sell on the hourly chart, while the short-term and daily readings are Neutral. Improvement in yen crosses should not automatically be interpreted as a bullish recovery in USD/JPY. AUD/NZD is also in Strong Sell on the daily chart, indicating continued weakness in the Australian dollar relative to the New Zealand dollar.
In commodities, gold has improved to Neutral on the daily chart. Crude oil has a Strong Buy daily bias but is correcting on shorter timeframes. Among equity indices, the Dow, S&P 500, and DAX have improved, while higher-timeframe selling remains in the Nasdaq 100 and Nikkei.
Main Changes Since the Previous Update
The daily readings for GBP/USD and GBP/JPY improved from Neutral to Buy. CHF/JPY and CAD/JPY also shifted to Buy on the daily chart, adding to the number of yen crosses with a bullish bias.
EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY, and NZD/JPY turned to Strong Buy on the 15-minute and hourly charts. However, EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY remain bearish on the daily chart, while NZD/JPY is Neutral; the bullish direction is not yet aligned across daily timeframes.
AUD/NZD remained in Strong Sell on the 15-minute and hourly charts, and its daily reading shifted from Neutral to Strong Sell.
Gold futures improved from Strong Sell to Neutral on the daily chart. In crude oil, the short-term reading shifted from Buy to Sell, while the hourly reading eased to Neutral.
The DAX turned to Strong Buy across all timeframes. The Dow and S&P 500 also improved on the hourly and daily charts.
Foreign Exchange
EUR/USD — 1.1248
5-minute: Buy; 15-minute and hourly: Strong Buy; daily: Strong Sell.
The rebound is clear from the short-term through hourly charts, but both moving averages and indicators remain bearish on the daily chart. Watch whether hourly buying holds and daily selling begins to ease.
GBP/USD — 1.3331
5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly: Strong Buy; daily: Buy.
All timeframes have improved in a bullish direction. Daily moving averages are still Neutral, however, while indicators are leading with a Strong Buy signal. For a potential pullback-buying setup, also look for improvement in the daily moving averages.
USD/JPY — 157.97
5-minute and 15-minute: Neutral; hourly: Strong Sell; daily: Neutral.
The 5-minute moving averages are Buy while indicators are Strong Sell. On the 15-minute and daily charts, moving averages are Sell while indicators are Buy. The hourly sell signal is clear, and a recovery toward a bullish bias has not been confirmed.
For a potential rally-selling setup, wait for the shorter timeframe to align to the downside. For buying, look for the hourly chart to improve.
USD/CHF — 0.8241
5-minute: Neutral; 15-minute and hourly: Strong Sell; daily: Neutral.
The previous short-term rebound has faded. On the hourly chart, both moving averages and indicators are Strong Sell. This is a potential short-term-to-hourly rally-selling setup, but wait for the 5-minute direction to align.
AUD/USD — 0.6958
5-minute: Sell; 15-minute and hourly: Strong Buy; daily: Strong Sell.
The 15-minute and hourly charts have improved since the previous update, but the 5-minute chart is now showing selling. This looks like a short-term correction within a rebound against the daily downtrend.
If considering the rebound, wait for the 5-minute chart to return to Buy. If hourly buying breaks down, watch for renewed alignment with the daily sell bias.
NZD/USD — 0.5667
5-minute: Sell; 15-minute and hourly: Strong Buy; daily: Neutral.
The pair has improved from the prior sell-dominated setup. Daily indicators are Buy, while moving averages are Neutral. Watch whether the 5-minute correction ends and buying on the 15-minute and hourly charts holds.
Yen Crosses and Relative Currency Strength
EUR/JPY — 177.70
5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly: Strong Buy; daily: Sell.
The pair has rebounded from Strong Sell across all timeframes in the previous update. Daily moving averages and indicators are still Sell. Separate continuation of short-term buying from a genuine daily trend reversal.
GBP/JPY — 210.59
5-minute: Buy; 15-minute and hourly: Strong Buy; daily: Buy.
All timeframes are aligned to the upside. Daily moving averages remain Neutral, but indicators are Strong Buy. A potential pullback-buying candidate; check whether hourly buying holds after a correction.
CHF/JPY — 191.69
5-minute: Neutral; 15-minute and hourly: Strong Buy; daily: Buy.
Higher timeframes have improved since the previous update. On the 5-minute chart, moving averages are Buy while indicators are Sell, but both the 15-minute and hourly charts are Strong Buy.
This is a pullback-buying candidate. Watch whether 5-minute indicators return to Buy and the short-term chart aligns with the higher timeframes.
AUD/JPY — 109.92
5-minute: Sell; 15-minute and hourly: Strong Buy; daily: Strong Sell.
The pair has rebounded from Strong Sell across all timeframes in the prior update, but both daily moving averages and indicators remain Strong Sell.
Treat the move as a rebound against the daily downtrend. For a long setup, wait for the 5-minute chart to improve; for a rally-selling setup, look for hourly buying to break down.
NZD/JPY — 89.52
5-minute: Sell; 15-minute and hourly: Strong Buy; daily: Neutral.
The short-term and hourly charts have improved since the previous update, and the daily reading has shifted from Strong Sell to Neutral. Daily indicators are Buy while moving averages are Neutral.
Daily conditions have improved more than in AUD/JPY. Watch for the 5-minute chart to recover to Buy and for the daily bias to align higher.
CAD/JPY — 111.55
5-minute: Neutral; 15-minute and hourly: Strong Buy; daily: Buy.
The pair has improved from Sell across all timeframes in the previous update. The 5-minute moving averages are Buy while indicators are Sell, but higher timeframes are bullish.
This is a pullback-buying candidate; wait for the 5-minute chart to recover to Buy.
EUR/GBP — 0.8438
5-minute: Sell; 15-minute, hourly, and daily: Strong Sell.
Selling pressure has continued since the prior update. Moving averages and indicators are bearish across all timeframes. Despite the euro’s rebound against the dollar, weakness against sterling remains.
The basic setup favors selling rallies. On a rebound, check whether the hourly sell bias persists.
AUD/NZD — 1.2279
5-minute: Neutral; 15-minute, hourly, and daily: Strong Sell.
The daily chart, previously Neutral, has shifted to Strong Sell. Moving averages and indicators are aligned to the downside from the 15-minute through daily charts.
Australian-dollar weakness versus the New Zealand dollar is clear. This is a potential rally-selling setup; watch whether a 5-minute rebound fades and turns lower.
EUR/CHF — 0.9270
5-minute: Sell; 15-minute, hourly, and daily: Strong Sell.
Moving averages and indicators are bearish across all timeframes. Together with weakness in USD/CHF, this points to continued relative strength in the Swiss franc.
The basic setup favors selling rallies. Watch whether a short-term rebound leads to improvement on the hourly chart.
Commodities
Gold Futures — 4,209.37
5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly: Strong Buy; daily: Neutral.
The 5-minute reading improved since the previous update, and the daily chart shifted from Strong Sell to Neutral. Daily moving averages remain Sell and indicators are Neutral.
The rebound is strengthening. For short-term pullback buying, look for hourly buying to hold and further improvement on the daily chart.
Silver Futures — 58.070
5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly: Strong Buy; daily: Strong Sell.
Buying from the short-term through hourly charts has strengthened since the previous update. However, both daily moving averages and indicators remain Strong Sell.
Daily weakness is more pronounced than in gold. A rebound may continue, but the daily trend has not turned bullish.
WTI Crude Oil — 97.17
5-minute and 15-minute: Sell; hourly: Neutral; daily: Strong Buy.
The short-term readings have weakened from Strong Buy across all timeframes in the previous update. On the hourly chart, moving averages are Buy while indicators are Strong Sell.
Treat this as a correction within a bullish daily trend and wait for the 15-minute and hourly charts to recover to Buy.
Natural Gas — 3.192
5-minute: Strong Buy; 15-minute and hourly: Strong Sell; daily: Strong Buy.
The 5-minute chart is rebounding, but selling on the 15-minute and hourly charts has intensified. The daily Buy signal conflicts with hourly selling.
Watch whether the 5-minute rebound extends to the 15-minute chart. For pullback buying, wait for the hourly chart to improve as well.
Equity Indices
Dow Jones — 52,177.69
5-minute: Buy; 15-minute, hourly, and daily: Strong Buy.
The hourly chart improved from Neutral to Strong Buy. Moving averages and indicators are bullish across all timeframes. A pullback-buying candidate; watch whether hourly buying holds during a short-term correction.
S&P 500 — 7,744.06
5-minute and 15-minute: Strong Buy; hourly and daily: Buy.
The previous Strong Sell hourly reading and Neutral daily reading have improved. Hourly moving averages are still Neutral, however, while indicators are leading with Strong Buy.
This is a pullback-buying candidate, but look for hourly moving averages to turn Buy as well.
Nasdaq 100 — 29,935.60
5-minute and 15-minute: Strong Buy; hourly and daily: Strong Sell.
Short-term conditions have improved, but moving averages and indicators remain aligned to the downside on the hourly and daily charts.
For selling rallies, wait for the short-term rebound to fade; for continued buying, look for higher-timeframe improvement. Short-term buying alone is not enough to confirm a renewed uptrend.
DAX — 25,621.16
Strong Buy across all timeframes.
The index has reversed from Strong Sell across all timeframes in the previous update. Moving averages and indicators are bullish throughout.
A pullback-buying candidate. Focus on whether buying on the 15-minute and hourly charts holds after a correction.
UK 100 — 10,834.62
5-minute: Neutral; 15-minute: Buy; hourly and daily: Strong Buy.
On the 5-minute chart, moving averages are Buy while indicators are Sell, but the hourly and daily Strong Buy signals remain intact.
For a pullback-buying setup, wait for the 5-minute chart to return to Buy.
CAC 40 — 7,944.78
5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly: Strong Buy; daily: Neutral.
The prior short-term selling has cleared, and the daily reading improved from Sell to Neutral. Daily moving averages are still Sell while indicators are Strong Buy.
Short-term buying is clear, but wait for alignment on the daily chart.
Nikkei 225 — 65,496.00
5-minute and 15-minute: Strong Sell; hourly: Sell; daily: Strong Sell.
Hourly indicators are Neutral, but moving averages remain Strong Sell. Selling also persists on the short-term and daily charts.
The basic setup favors selling rallies. If considering a rebound, wait for the 15-minute and hourly charts to turn Buy.
Strength Rankings
Bullish across all timeframes:
• GBP/USD
• GBP/JPY
• Dow Jones
• S&P 500
• DAX
Bullish on higher timeframes, awaiting short-term improvement:
• CHF/JPY
• CAD/JPY
• UK 100
Rebounds with daily readings improved to Neutral:
• NZD/USD
• NZD/JPY
• Gold Futures
• CAC 40
Rebounds against a bearish daily trend:
• EUR/USD
• AUD/USD
• EUR/JPY
• AUD/JPY
• Silver Futures
Weakness Rankings
Strong Sell from 15-minute through daily:
• EUR/GBP
• EUR/CHF
• AUD/NZD
Strong Sell from 15-minute through hourly:
• USD/CHF
Sell across all timeframes:
• Nikkei 225
Strong Sell persists on hourly and daily:
• Nasdaq 100
Trading Strategy
Potential pullback buys:
For GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, the Dow, S&P 500, and DAX, prioritize alignment in the bullish direction across all timeframes.
CHF/JPY, CAD/JPY, and UK 100 have clear bullish higher-timeframe readings. Wait for a short-term correction to end and for the 5-minute charts to align higher.
NZD/USD, NZD/JPY, gold futures, and CAC 40 have improved to Neutral on the daily chart. Treat these separately from instruments that are bullish across the daily timeframe as well.
Potential rally sells:
For EUR/GBP, EUR/CHF, and AUD/NZD, focus on Strong Sell signals from the 15-minute through daily charts.
For USD/CHF, use the short-term-to-hourly sell bias as the main guide; for the Nikkei, selling includes the daily chart.
The Nasdaq 100 has strong short-term buying, so wait for the rebound to stall before considering a short. USD/JPY remains in Strong Sell on the hourly chart; wait for short-term selling to align.
Instruments awaiting directional alignment:
EUR/USD, AUD/USD, EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY, and silver futures are rebounding against a bearish daily bias. Check whether hourly buying persists or the pairs return to alignment with daily selling.
Crude oil and natural gas have bullish daily readings but weaker hourly conditions. For pullback buying, wait for a recovery from the short-term through hourly charts.
Key Takeaways
The additional CHF/JPY and CAD/JPY readings have improved to Buy on the daily chart. AUD/JPY, however, retains a Strong Sell daily bias, so yen crosses should not be treated as a single bullish group.
The New Zealand dollar has improved against both the U.S. dollar and yen, while AUD/NZD is bearish. Separate a possible Australian-dollar rebound from the New Zealand dollar’s relative strength.
USD/JPY is in Strong Sell on the hourly chart, diverging from the improvement in yen crosses. The crosses’ rebound may also reflect improvement in each currency against the U.S. dollar.
The Dow, S&P 500, and DAX have improved, while higher-timeframe selling remains in the Nasdaq 100 and Nikkei. Prioritize alignment across both indices and timeframes.
When several positions share the same currency or multiple equity indices are bought together, account for overlapping exposure to common market moves.
Four-timeframe readings for XAU/USD, XAG/USD, and BTC/USD were not fully available. This report therefore covers the 26 instruments with confirmed data.
