Overview
Today’s key themes are weakening USD/JPY and yen crosses, a bearish reversal in the Australian dollar, and broad agreement on the long side in crude oil.
USD/JPY’s 15-minute and hourly readings have turned to strong sell, while its daily reading has retreated to neutral. EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY, and NZD/JPY are strong sell across all time frames. AUD/USD has also shifted to strong sell across all time frames, erasing the Australian dollar’s improvement seen previously.
Crude oil is strong buy across all time frames. Gold and silver have improved on the 15-minute and hourly charts, but their strong daily sell readings remain. BTC is strong sell across all time frames.
The UK 100 stands out for its strength among equity indices, while Germany’s DAX is strong sell across all time frames. The Nasdaq 100 and Nikkei Average have also turned to sell through the daily chart, widening the divergence among indices.
Key Changes Since the Previous Analysis
USD/JPY’s 15-minute and hourly readings have shifted from strong buy to strong sell, while the daily reading has moved from strong buy to neutral. The 5-minute rebound alone is not enough to signal a recovery in the broader bullish bias.
AUD/USD has reversed from buy across all time frames to strong sell across all time frames. EUR/JPY’s hourly reading has also turned from neutral to strong sell, aligning short-term and daily selling pressure.
Gold and silver futures have improved to buy on the 15-minute and hourly charts. Their daily strong sell readings remain unchanged, so this is a rebound against the broader downtrend. Crude oil has moved out of its short-term correction and is now strong buy across all time frames.
The UK 100 has improved to strong buy across all time frames. By contrast, the S&P 500 has weakened, with the hourly reading turning to strong sell and the daily reading retreating to neutral. The Nasdaq 100 and Nikkei Average have shifted to strong sell on the daily chart.
Foreign Exchange
EUR/USD — 1.1207
The 5-minute and 15-minute readings are strong sell, the hourly reading is buy, and the daily reading is strong sell. The hourly chart has improved since the previous analysis, but selling pressure remains on the short-term and daily charts. On the hourly chart, both moving averages and indicators are bullish, leaving room for a rebound. If considering a short on a rally, first watch whether the hourly reading also turns back to sell.
GBP/USD — 1.3251
The 5-minute reading is strong sell, the 15-minute reading is neutral, the hourly reading is strong buy, and the daily reading is neutral. Short-term conditions have weakened since the previous analysis. The hourly buy reading remains, but the daily moving averages are bearish while the indicators are neutral, so the bullish signals are not aligned across the board. Wait for either a recovery to buy on the 15-minute chart or a loss of the hourly buy signal.
USD/JPY — 157.83
The 5-minute reading is strong buy, the 15-minute and hourly readings are strong sell, and the daily reading is neutral. The pair has weakened substantially from its previous bullish bias. On the daily chart, strongly bearish moving averages conflict with bullish indicators. Treat the 5-minute reading as a short-term rebound. While the 15-minute and hourly charts remain strong sell, a rally is a potential selling opportunity. A broader recovery would require improvement on the higher time frames.
USD/CHF — 0.8303
The 5-minute and 15-minute readings are strong buy, the hourly reading is strong sell, and the daily reading is neutral. The pair is rebounding in the short term, but both moving averages and indicators on the hourly chart remain bearish. The previous bullish bias on the hourly and daily charts has weakened. Watch whether the short-term rebound leads to an improvement on the hourly chart.
AUD/USD — 0.6918
All time frames are strong sell. Moving averages and indicators are also aligned to the downside across all time frames, reversing the previous bullish bias. The pair is a potential sell on rallies. Watch whether the 15-minute and hourly sell readings remain in place during any rebound.
NZD/USD — 0.5607
The 5-minute and 15-minute readings are strong sell, the hourly reading is sell, and the daily reading is strong sell. The hourly reading has turned from buy to sell since the previous analysis, aligning all time frames on the downside. Moving averages and indicators also agree on selling. The pair is a potential sell on rallies. Even if a short-term rebound develops, treat the bias as bearish until the hourly reading improves to buy.
Yen Crosses and Relative Currency Strength
EUR/JPY — 176.88
All time frames are strong sell. The hourly reading, previously neutral, has also turned to strong sell. Moving averages and indicators are aligned to the downside across every time frame. This is a potential sell-on-rallies setup. Watch whether selling pressure eases simultaneously on the short-term and hourly charts.
GBP/JPY — 209.12
The 5-minute reading is neutral, the 15-minute reading is strong sell, and the hourly and daily readings are neutral. The pair has retreated from buy across all time frames in the previous analysis. Hourly moving averages are bearish while the indicators are neutral. On the daily chart, strongly bearish moving averages conflict with bullish indicators. Wait to see whether the hourly chart joins the 15-minute sell signal or short-term conditions recover to buy.
CHF/JPY — 190.10
The 5-minute and 15-minute readings are strong sell, while the hourly and daily readings are neutral. Moving averages are bearish across all time frames, but the daily indicators are strong buy. The short-term weakness contrasts with the mixed daily picture. Even when considering a short-term sell on a rally, wait for the hourly chart to turn lower as well.
AUD/JPY — 109.18
All time frames are strong sell. Moving averages and indicators are also aligned to the downside. The weakness matches AUD/USD, confirming clear selling pressure in the Australian dollar against both the U.S. dollar and the yen. This is a potential sell-on-rallies setup. Watch whether a short-term rebound leads to an improvement on the hourly chart.
NZD/JPY — 88.48
All time frames are strong sell. Moving averages and indicators are bearish across all time frames. As with NZD/USD, the signals are aligned to the downside, so the conditions do not favor chasing a rebound. Consider selling rallies and watch for short-term momentum to fade after a rebound.
CAD/JPY — 111.11
The 5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly readings are strong sell, while the daily reading is sell. Daily indicators are neutral, but the moving averages are strong sell. On the short-term and hourly charts, moving averages and indicators both agree on selling. The pair is a potential sell on rallies. Watch whether the daily indicators also turn to sell or the hourly chart improves.
EUR/GBP — 0.8459
All time frames are strong sell. Moving averages and indicators are also aligned to the downside. The overall bearish bias has continued since the previous analysis. This is a potential sell-on-rallies setup. Read it as euro weakness against sterling and keep it distinct from the euro’s broader direction.
AUD/NZD — 1.2339
The 5-minute and daily readings are neutral, while the 15-minute and hourly readings are strong sell. On the 15-minute and hourly charts, moving averages and indicators are both bearish. On the daily chart, moving averages are neutral and indicators are sell. The Australian dollar is weak relative to the New Zealand dollar. If considering a short on a rally, first look for the 5-minute chart to join the sell bias.
EUR/CHF — 0.9305
The 5-minute reading is strong sell, the 15-minute reading is sell, and the hourly and daily readings are strong sell. The previous buy readings on the 15-minute and hourly charts have broken down, and the daily chart has shifted from neutral to strong sell. Moving averages and indicators are bearish across all time frames. The pair is a potential sell on rallies. Even if it rebounds in the short term, prioritize whether the hourly sell signal remains intact.
Commodities
Gold (XAU/USD) — 4,154.45
The 5-minute reading is neutral, the 15-minute and hourly readings are strong buy, and the daily reading is strong sell. On the 15-minute and hourly charts, moving averages and indicators both give strong buy signals. On the 5-minute chart, bullish moving averages conflict with strongly bearish indicators. This is a rebound against the daily downtrend. Watch whether the 5-minute reading recovers to buy and whether the daily selling pressure eases.
Gold Futures — 4,175.45
The 5-minute reading is neutral, the 15-minute and hourly readings are strong buy, and the daily reading is strong sell. The 15-minute and hourly charts have improved from strong sell across all time frames in the previous analysis. However, both moving averages and indicators remain bearish on the daily chart. The rebound may continue, but the daily trend has not turned bullish. Watch for either renewed short-term acceleration or a breakdown in the hourly buy signal.
Silver (XAG/USD) — 56.6870
The 5-minute reading is neutral, the 15-minute and hourly readings are buy, and the daily reading is strong sell. Hourly and 15-minute indicators are strong buy, but moving averages are neutral. Moving-average conditions are improving more slowly than in gold. Watch whether moving averages on the 15-minute and hourly charts turn to buy.
Silver Futures — 56.803
The 5-minute reading is neutral, the 15-minute and hourly readings are buy, and the daily reading is strong sell. The short-term and hourly charts have improved from strong sell across all time frames in the previous analysis. However, moving averages on the 15-minute and hourly charts remain neutral, with indicators leading the recovery. Treat this as a rebound against the daily sell trend and wait for moving averages to turn bullish.
WTI Crude Oil — 94.92
All time frames are strong buy. Moving averages and indicators are also strong buy across the board. The previous short-term correction has ended, and short-term through daily readings are now aligned to the upside. This is a potential buy-the-dip setup. Watch whether the 15-minute and hourly buy signals hold through a correction.
Natural Gas — 3.248
The 5-minute reading is strong sell, the 15-minute and hourly readings are sell, and the daily reading is strong buy. The hourly reading has turned from strong buy to sell since the previous analysis. Hourly moving averages are neutral, while indicators are strong sell. The daily bullish trend is facing a broader correction. Wait for the 15-minute and hourly buy signals to recover before considering a dip-buying setup.
BTC/USD — 81,180.0
All time frames are strong sell. Moving averages and indicators are aligned to the downside across all time frames. Selling pressure includes the daily chart, so confirmation of continued weakness is preferable to chasing a rebound. This is a potential sell-on-rallies setup. Watch whether any short-term buy signal extends to the hourly chart.
Equity Indices
Dow Jones — 51,621.48
The 5-minute and 15-minute readings are strong buy, the hourly reading is neutral, and the daily reading is buy. Short-term conditions have improved since the previous analysis. On the hourly chart, strongly bullish moving averages conflict with bearish indicators. If considering buying dips, watch whether hourly indicators also improve to buy.
S&P 500 — 7,718.94
The 5-minute reading is strong buy, the 15-minute reading is neutral, the hourly reading is strong sell, and the daily reading is neutral. The previous bullish bias on the hourly and daily charts has weakened. On the 15-minute chart, bearish moving averages conflict with strongly bullish indicators. Treat the 5-minute buy signal as a rebound and wait for improvement on the 15-minute and hourly charts.
Nasdaq 100 — 29,950.82
The 5-minute reading is neutral, the 15-minute reading is sell, and the hourly and daily readings are strong sell. The daily chart has joined the hourly sell bias seen in the previous analysis. On the 5-minute chart, bearish moving averages conflict with bullish indicators. This is a potential sell-on-rallies setup. Even if a short-term rebound develops, watch whether the hourly strong-sell signal remains in place.
Germany 40 (DAX) — 25,188.38
All time frames are strong sell. The daily chart, previously neutral, has also turned to strong sell, strengthening alignment to the downside. Moving averages and indicators are bearish across all time frames. This is a potential sell-on-rallies setup. Watch whether selling pressure eases simultaneously from the short-term through hourly charts.
UK 100 — 10,777.29
All time frames are strong buy. The previous short-term correction has ended, with short-term readings now aligned with hourly and daily buying. Moving averages and indicators are also bullish across all time frames. This is the clearest buy-the-dip candidate among the equity indices. During a correction, focus on whether the hourly buy signal remains intact.
France 40 (CAC 40) — 7,882.38
The 5-minute reading is strong sell, the 15-minute reading is sell, the hourly reading is strong buy, and the daily reading is sell. The hourly reading has improved from strong sell in the previous analysis, but the short-term and daily charts remain bearish. It is not yet clear whether the hourly rebound will improve the daily picture. For a sell on a rally, watch for the hourly buy signal to fail. For a continued rebound, look for the short-term charts to recover to buy.
Nikkei 225 — 64,510.00
The 5-minute reading is strong sell, the 15-minute reading is sell, and the hourly and daily readings are strong sell. The previous 5-minute buy and daily buy readings have broken down, aligning all time frames to the downside. Moving averages and indicators also point lower across every time frame. This is a potential sell-on-rallies setup. Even when considering a rebound, wait for improvement on the 15-minute and hourly charts.
Strength Ranking
Strong buy across all time frames: WTI crude oil and UK 100.
Daily buy bias remains; hourly confirmation needed: Dow Jones.
Rebounds against a daily sell trend: Gold, gold futures, silver, and silver futures.
Weakness Ranking
Strong sell across all time frames: AUD/USD, EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, EUR/GBP, BTC/USD, and Germany 40 (DAX).
Sell across all time frames: NZD/USD, CAD/JPY, EUR/CHF, and Nikkei 225.
Hourly and daily strong sell aligned: Nasdaq 100.
Trading Strategy
Buy-the-Dip Candidates
For WTI crude oil and the UK 100, prioritize the strong-buy readings across all time frames and agreement between moving averages and indicators. Watch whether the 15-minute and hourly buy signals remain in place after a short-term correction.
The Dow Jones retains a daily buy reading, but hourly indicators are sell. Wait for the hourly signals to align to the upside before treating it as a stronger buy candidate.
Sell-on-Rallies Candidates
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, EUR/GBP, BTC/USD, and Germany 40 (DAX) are strong sell across all time frames. NZD/USD, CAD/JPY, EUR/CHF, the Nasdaq 100, and the Nikkei Average also favor the downside. Watch whether the short-term charts turn back to sell after a rebound.
USD/JPY is rebounding on the 5-minute chart. The key test is whether that signal fades while the 15-minute and hourly strong-sell readings remain in place.
Wait for Directional Alignment
EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, GBP/JPY, CHF/JPY, the S&P 500, and France 40 (CAC 40) show conflicting signals across time frames. Gold and silver are rebounding against daily sell trends, while natural gas is correcting against a daily buy trend. Wait to see whether short-term signals align with the hourly or daily direction.
Key Takeaways
USD/JPY requires a significant reassessment from the previous buy-the-dip bias. Unless the 5-minute rebound extends to the 15-minute and hourly charts, selling pressure on rallies may remain.
Among the yen crosses, AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY are notably weak. The Australian dollar is also weak against the U.S. dollar, the yen, and the New Zealand dollar, creating overlapping sell signals across several pairs.
In commodities, distinguish crude oil’s strength from the weakness in gold and silver on the daily charts. The rebound in precious metals should not be treated as a reversal of their daily downtrend.
The UK 100 and Germany 40 (DAX) have opposite readings. The Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 also diverge, making it difficult to treat equity indices as moving in one direction.
Check for overlapping exposure when trades share a common driver, including yen-cross selling, Australian-dollar selling, and similar positions in gold and silver.
