No Relief Even With a Ceasefire | A “Paranoid Market” Driven by Oil
■ Today’s Summary
Following a two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, markets briefly shifted to risk-on mode.
- Crude Oil: Sharp decline
- Equities: Rising globally
- FX: USD weakness → “Safe-haven dollar buying” is being unwound
However:
- Israel continues its strikes
- Iran has launched limited counter-attacks → The ceasefire’s effectiveness is in doubt
Oil prices have found a floor and are stabilizing, and markets are once again entering an unstable phase.
■ FX Trends
- USD: Selling has run its course; downside is now sticky → No clear directional bias — markets moving to wait-and-see
■ The Core Nature of This Market
This is a market where “ceasefire ≠ reassurance” → The market is oscillating between:
- Optimism (ceasefire)
- Skepticism (ongoing risk)
■ Key Focus Going Forward (Most Critical)
- Direction of crude oil prices
- Safety of the Strait of Hormuz
- Middle East headlines → Crude oil = the central market indicator
■ Scenarios Going Forward
① Oil continues to decline → Inflation concerns ease → Equities rise / USD weakens further
② Oil rebounds → Crisis fears reignite → Return of safe-haven dollar buying
③ Instability continues → Markets whipsawed by headlines
■ Key Events to Watch Today
- U.S. PCE Price Index
- U.S. GDP (Final Estimate)
- U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
※ Note: This time around, → Middle East developments will have more market impact than the data
■ Strategic Points
- Betting on a single direction is dangerous
- Trade short-term while watching crude oil
- Prioritize reactions to news flow
■ Summary
The current market is not a “ceasefire rally” — it is a market “that doubts the ceasefire.”
→ The key variable is crude oil → The underlying driver is geopolitics → The top priority is: Flexibility and risk management
