My Current Rationale for Buying BTC on the Dip
I received questions about why I’m stepping in on the buy side during this pullback in Bitcoin (BTC). Below is a summary of the personal thesis behind this approach.
BTC: In Downswings, “Whales” Move — Three Reasons Dip-Buying Is Accelerating
BTC is in a corrective phase, but on-chain data (blockchain activity) is showing a clear pattern: large holders (“whales”) are steadily absorbing the panic selling from retail investors.
1) Quiet Accumulation by Whales
As price slipped below $80,000, the number of large addresses holding 1,000+ BTC has increased by about 3.6% recently.
Implication: Capital-rich investors view the current decline not as “risk,” but as a bargain opportunity, and are adding to positions.
2) Large-Scale Outflows from Exchanges
From late January into February, tens of thousands of BTC have been moving from exchanges to external wallets.
Implication: The pool of BTC “waiting to be sold” on exchanges is shrinking. Large holders are transferring coins into cold storage for long-term holding. As available supply tightens, sell pressure may be nearing exhaustion.
3) Institutional and Major Exchange “Buy Support” Signals
- Binance (SAFU Fund): Announced plans to gradually convert $1 billion of its user protection fund into BTC. By Feb 4, about $200 million (~2,700 BTC) had already been converted, providing notable downside support.
- Corporate stance: Companies such as MicroStrategy in the U.S. and Metaplanet in Japan continue to buy on dips, maintaining BTC as a treasury asset.
Outlook and Strategy
Historically, when retail fear is absorbed by large-holder accumulation, it often precedes a base-building phase.
- Support zone: $74,000–$75,000 (heavy bid concentration)
- Resistance: Reclaiming $80,000 is the near-term focus
Volatility is likely to remain elevated in the short term. However, judging by the accumulation signals from large holders, the groundwork for a medium- to long-term bullish structure appears to be forming.
This view is based on on-chain behavior and positioning dynamics rather than short-term price action.
