📉 -32,388 USD｜BTC Crash, NZD Weakness, Dollar Rebound — A Difficult, Mismatched Week
✔ Trade Results (Dec 1–5)
Total: -32,388 USD
This week brought a rare combination of three factors that simply didn’t align:
- NZD long expectations failed completely
- BTC crashed → triggering sharp yen buying
- USD didn’t weaken — instead rebounding mid-week
A tough week defined by three mismatched drivers.
🌏 FX Weekly Review & Outlook (Dec 2025 – Week 2)
■ 【Review】 Market Recap: Dec 1 Week
🟦 USD/JPY｜Yen Strength Dominates on FOMC Cut Expectations × BoJ Hike Speculation
Japan and the U.S. are moving in completely opposite policy directions:
→ Dollar weakness / Yen strength as the base trend
- Sharp drop to 154.51
- Rebound to the 156s on U.S. yields
- But renewed selling pressure — rebounds lack momentum
Japan’s 10-year JGB yield hit 1.935% (highest since 2007)
→ BoJ rate-hike expectations remain a heavy headwind for USD/JPY.
🟦 EUR/USD｜Climbs on Strengthening FOMC Cut Expectations
- Rallied to 1.1682
- ECB expected to end the cutting cycle
→ Euro remains well-supported.
🟦 GBP｜Rises on Reduced Fiscal Concerns, but Weak vs JPY
- GBP/USD rose into the 1.33 highs
- Budget-related fears eased
- BOE rate cut expectations remain strong → GBP/JPY capped near 207
■ 【Outlook】Dec 8 Week Forecast
🔵 1. USD/JPY｜FOMC Will Decide Everything This Week
Expected range: 153.00–157.00
✔ Key Event: FOMC (Dec 9–10)
A rate cut is fully priced in.
What matters is:
- Dot Plot (SEP projections)
- Powell’s press conference
■ Hawkish surprise
(hold rates / only one cut projected)
→ Spike toward 157+ possible
■ Dovish scenario
(additional cuts hinted)
→ Drop back into the 153s
✔ Upside-limiting factors
- BoJ December rate-hike expectations rising sharply
- FRB Chair candidate Hassett leaning dovish
- Japan’s large fiscal package → supports yen selling, but rate-differential effect outweighs it
✔ Additional risks
- China sanctions on Japan (rare-earth export concerns)
- Trump tariff legal rulings
- U.S. Treasury “FX Report”
🔵 2. EUR/USD｜Policy Divergence Favors Euro Strength
Expected range: 1.1500–1.1800
- ECB widely seen as ending the easing cycle
- FOMC leaning dovish → dollar downward pressure
→ Euro favored on dips
Watch:
- Ukraine ceasefire negotiations
- France’s 2026 budget deliberations
🔵 3. GBP Outlook
GBP/JPY: 204.50–208.50
- Fiscal stress fears have eased
- BOE likely cutting 25bp on Dec 18
- GBP/USD will track FOMC
- GBP/JPY capped by BoJ hike expectations but remains supported on dips
📅 Key Events – Dec 8 Week
★ Top Tier
- FOMC (9–10)
- RBA rate decision (9)
- Australia jobs (11)
Dec 8 (Mon)
Japan GDP (rev), wages, current account
China trade
Hassett FRB-chair candidate event
Dec 9 (Tue)
RBA
U.S. JOLTS
BoJ Governor Ueda FT speech
Dec 10 (Wed)
China CPI/PPI
BoC
FOMC + SEP + Powell
Dec 11 (Thu)
Australia employment
SNB
US jobless claims
OPEC monthly report
Dec 12 (Fri)
Fed officials speak
🎯 Overall Summary: Dec 8 Week Will Be “Unusually Volatile for December”
With:
FOMC × RBA × BOC × AU Jobs × China CPI × SNB × OPEC
→ It is shaping up to be the most volatile week of December 2025.
Especially USD/JPY:
FOMC will set the short-term trend completely.
📜 Afterword — “He Who Controls His Own Body Controls the Market”
Thank you for reading this week’s FX report.
Recently, calisthenics — body-weight training — has become popular.
Its philosophy surprisingly mirrors trading.
💪 1. Strength comes from fundamentals, not equipment
Calisthenics uses no machines — only proper form and consistency.
Trading is exactly the same:
- Risk management (1–2%)
- Consistent stop-loss placement
- Breath control to manage emotions
These fundamentals build the strongest “trading muscles.”
⚖️ 2. Know your own weight = Know your capital
In calisthenics, your bodyweight is the load.
In trading, your position size is your weight.
Oversized lots break your form — just like too-heavy barbells.
Light but consistent repetitions = growth.
🔥 3. The more you repeat, the stronger you become
You won’t go from 10 to 50 pushups in a day.
But daily discipline builds compounding strength.
Trading improves the same way:
review → journaling → rest → repeat.
📈 Conclusion
The philosophy of calisthenics is simple:
“Control yourself. Rely on no external crutch.”
Markets change. Opponents change.
But those who can control their own weight —
their risk, their emotions, their size —
never break, no matter the environment.
Let’s refine our form again next week
and keep training in the dojo called “the market.” 🧘♂️📊
