Tariff Risk Subsides – Market Shifts into “Position-Building” Mode Ahead of Key Announcements

[Tariff Risk Subsides – Market Shifts into “Position-Building” Mode Ahead of Key Announcements]
— Market transitions into adjustment phase as Trump tariffs and U.S. jobs data approach —

■ USD/JPY Rebounds as Tariff Risk Eases — Back Above 150 Yen

In yesterday’s forex market, USD/JPY recovered above the 150 level. The wave of risk-off sentiment triggered by renewed Trump tariff concerns early in the week has partially subsided, with position adjustments and short-covering dominating.

Market sentiment continues to shift like a “weather vane,” with growing skepticism around the sustainability of any one trend.

• The Dollar Index (DXY) lacks clear direction.
• The market is essentially in “wait-and-see” mode, awaiting further details on Trump’s tariff announcements.
• The uncertainty surrounding the content of these tariffs reinforces the idea that the market is currently in a correction/consolidation phase.

■ Trump’s Mixed Messaging Adds to Market Uncertainty

Trump’s recent comments have softened somewhat, giving the impression he’s probing reactions from trading partners:

• “Reciprocal tariffs will be relatively ‘gentle.’”
• “Tariffs will be announced on Wednesday.”
• “Avoiding secondary sanctions on Russian oil is preferred.”

→ These statements have prevented a full-on risk-on sentiment shift, and short-covering has been somewhat incomplete.

💡 Key Events to Watch:

• April 2 (Wed) : Trump to announce tariff policy at the White House Rose Garden.
• April 3 (Thu): Scheduled imposition of 25% additional tariff on automobiles.

■ U.S. Economic Data: Stagflation Fears Begin to Ease

Yesterday’s Chicago PMI for March came in at 47.6 (vs forecast 45.0, previous 45.5), significantly exceeding expectations.

→ This result helped ease concerns over stagflation that had flared up after last week’s PCE data.

Today’s upcoming U.S. data will be closely watched for further signals:

📝 U.S. Economic Releases (JST):

• JOLTS Job Openings (Feb) → Expected: 7.655 million / Previous: 7.740 million
• March Final Manufacturing PMI
• March ISM Manufacturing Index
• February Construction Spending

→ The JOLTS report is considered a leading labor market indicator and could prompt further positioning ahead of Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP).

■ Central Bank Speeches: Caution on Relevance

While many central bank officials are scheduled to speak today, not all speeches are policy-related.

💬 Notable Speakers Today:

• Greene (BoE MPC)
• Vujčić (Croatian Central Bank)
• Cipollone (ECB)
• Lagarde (ECB President), Lane (ECB Chief Economist) → AI-related event; limited rate commentary expected
• Barkin (Richmond Fed)

■ Trading Strategy: Preparing for a “Buy the Fact” Setup

The market seems to have partially priced in tariff risks, increasing the likelihood of short-covering just before or after the announcement.

🔁 Strategic Outlook:

• USD/JPY and Cross-Yen (especially Gold and EUR/JPY): Expect limited downside — buying dips is favored.
• Participants are expected to gradually build long positions starting today.
• Ahead of Friday’s U.S. employment report, positioning could strengthen midweek.

📌 Summary Table: