📉 USD/JPY Declines as U.S. Economy Weakens! Next Support? -$162,462 Loss
The trading week from February 24 to February 28 was challenging, with significant market volatility.
The weakening U.S. economic indicators accelerated USD selling, leading to a decline in USD/JPY.
📆 Next Week’s (March 10) FX Market Outlook
💵 USD/JPY
📉 Trend: Yen Strength Likely to Continue, BoJ Rate Hike Speculation in Focus
🔍 Key Events:
- March 12 – U.S. February CPI → Expected 2.6% YoY (A lower-than-expected CPI may trigger more USD selling)
- March 13 – U.S. February PPI → A further decline in inflation would reinforce USD weakness
- March 14 – Japan’s Spring Wage Negotiations (Shunto) First Response → A large wage hike could fuel BoJ rate hike expectations → Stronger JPY
- March 14 – U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index → Will impact overall market sentiment
📌 Next Support for USD/JPY: 147.50 Level
💶 EUR/USD
📈 Trend: Germany’s Fiscal Expansion Plans Support EUR
🔍 Key Factors:
- Germany’s Loosening of the Debt Brake → More stimulus could boost the euro
- Eurozone Economic Data → Improving sentiment could strengthen EUR further
💷 GBP/JPY
📊 Trend: BoE Rate Cut Speculation & U.K. Economic Data in Focus
🔍 Key Events:
- March 14 – U.K. January GDP & Industrial Production → If GDP is positive, it may support GBP
- BoE Rate Cut Speculation → If BoE remains cautious, GBP may stay firm
💵 CAD/JPY
📉 Trend: Uncertainty Over Trump Tariffs
🔍 Key Events:
- March 9 – Canadian Liberal Party Leadership Election → Potential U.S.-Canada trade tensions
- March 12 – BoC Policy Rate Decision → Expected cut from 3.00% to 2.75%
📌 CAD remains volatile, short-term trading approach recommended
💲 AUD/JPY
📉 Trend: Impacted by U.S. Inflation Data & Trade Policies
🔍 Key Events:
- March 11 – Australia’s March Westpac Consumer Confidence & NAB Business Conditions Index
- March 12 – U.S. CPI Release (USD-driven movements expected)
- RBA Policy Outlook → If rate cut expectations fade, AUD could gain support
🇿🇦 ZAR/JPY
📉 Trend: Political Risks Weigh on ZAR
🔍 Key Events:
- March 12 – South Africa’s 2025 Budget Plan (Political uncertainty impacts ZAR)
- VAT Increase Issue (15% → 17%) → Decision could impact ZAR movements
📆 Key Economic Events
| Date | Event | Currency | |||-|
| March 9 | Canadian Liberal Party Leadership Election | CAD |
| March 11 | Australia’s Consumer & Business Sentiment Data | AUD |
| March 12 | U.S. February CPI | USD |
| March 12 | Bank of Canada Rate Decision | CAD |
| March 13 | U.S. February PPI | USD |
| March 14 | U.K. January GDP & Industrial Production | GBP |
| March 14 | U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index | USD |
📌 Biggest Market Movers: U.S. CPI (March 12) & BoJ Rate Hike Speculation (March 14 Shunto)
📌 Summary
✅ USD: CPI could influence Fed rate cut expectations in May
✅ EUR: Germany’s fiscal expansion could support EUR
✅ GBP: Awaiting key economic data; subject to external influences
✅ CAD: Unstable due to tariff concerns
✅ AUD: RBA’s cautious stance may provide support
✅ ZAR: Budget negotiations will impact sentiment
📌 This week, focus on “U.S. CPI” & “Spring Wage Negotiations,” keeping an eye on the yen’s strengthening trend!
📖 Side Note: 1-Month Matcha Experiment – Can It Replace Coffee?
☕ Switched from coffee to matcha for a month – Here’s what happened!
Matcha is trending among Gen Z as a coffee alternative.
It’s packed with antioxidants, caffeine, and potential health benefits.
But can it really replace coffee?
I decided to find out by replacing my morning espresso shots with matcha for a full month.
🥄 Matcha Setup
Normally, I drink iced coffee with a double espresso shot (~254mg caffeine).
Matcha contains ~70mg caffeine per teaspoon, so I used 2 teaspoons (140mg caffeine total).
☕ How I Prepared My Matcha Latte
- 2 tsp matcha powder
- 2oz (60ml) hot water at 70°C (158°F)
- Whisk using a milk frother
- Add milk & optional sweeteners (maple syrup is best!)
👉 No bamboo whisk? A milk frother works fine.
💰 Taste & Cost – Matcha vs. Coffee
I used Costco’s matcha powder ($20).
There are Ceremonial Grade (premium) and Casual Grade (everyday use)—since I make lattes, I used casual grade.
🎭 How does matcha taste?
- Grassy & slightly bitter
- Mixing it with maple syrup makes it way smoother!
🔹 Best Sweeteners for Matcha:
- 🍁 Maple syrup (Highly recommended!)
- 🍯 Honey
- 🍃 Vanilla extract
- 🍭 Stevia
😴 Physical Changes – Matcha vs. Coffee
🔥 Day 1: Extreme Fatigue
- No “instant wake-up” effect like coffee
- Felt foggy and slow all morning
🧠 Week 1: Stable Focus
- No caffeine crash like coffee
- Takes longer to “kick in”
⚡ 1 Month Later: Reduced Caffeine Dependence
- When I went back to coffee, I got a headache
- Less caffeine dependency after switching to matcha
🤔 Final Verdict: Would I Do It Again? → NO
✅ Matcha’s Benefits:
✔ Smoother caffeine release (no crash)
✔ Potential health benefits (antioxidants, metabolism boost)
✔ Less caffeine dependency over time
❌ Matcha’s Downsides:
✖ Weaker energy boost compared to coffee
✖ Takes longer to feel awake
✖ Taste isn’t for everyone
📌 Conclusion – Matcha is Great, But It’s Not a Full Coffee Replacement
- Matcha is a solid alternative, but lacks the “instant alertness” of coffee
- It provides long-lasting energy without crashes
- Good for reducing caffeine intake
But for me?
I’m sticking with coffee. ☕🔥
