Market Analysis and Technical Analysis (4-Hour Chart) – December 26, 2024
EUR/USD – Buy
Current Situation: EUR/USD remains weak around 1.0400, continuing its downward trend.
Key Points:
- U.S. Federal Reserve (FRB):
- December rate cut (25 bp to 4.50%) announced.
- Rate cut pace for 2025 expected to slow, with only two rate cuts forecasted for the year.
- European Central Bank (ECB):
- December rate cut (25 bp to 3.15%).
- Uncertainty remains for policy in 2024 and beyond, with inflation projected to fall below 2.0% by 2026.
- U.S. Labor Market Data (Scheduled for 15:30 GMT+2):
- Initial jobless claims forecast: 218,000 (previous: 220,000).
- Continuing claims expected to remain flat at around 1.874 million.
GBP/USD – Strong Sell
Current Situation: GBP/USD remains range-bound around 1.2540.
Key Points:
- Bank of England (BoE):
- December policy rate unchanged at 4.75%.
- Economic uncertainty is high, prompting cautious policy direction.
- UK GDP (Revised):
- Q3 annualized growth: 0.9% (previous forecast: 1.0%).
- Quarterly growth: 0.0% (forecast: 0.1%).
- U.S. Jobless Claims Data:
- Stability in the U.S. labor market may provide some support for the pound.
NZD/USD – Strong Sell
Current Situation: NZD/USD trades around 0.5650, seeking a recovery from bottom levels.
Key Points:
- U.S. Federal Reserve (FRB):
- Slower rate cut pace for 2025 weighs on the New Zealand dollar.
- New Zealand Trade Statistics:
- November exports increased to NZ$6.48 billion (previous: NZ$5.61 billion).
- Trade deficit narrowed significantly (from -NZ$1.658 billion to -NZ$437 million).
- U.S. Durable Goods Orders:
- November declined by -1.1% (previous: +0.8%), indicating softening demand in the U.S. economy.
USD/JPY – Strong Buy
Current Situation: USD/JPY shows slight upward momentum near 157.40.
Key Points:
- Bank of Japan (BoJ):
- Policy rate unchanged at 0.25%.
- Discussions about tightening measures for 2024 and beyond continue.
- Japanese Economic Data:
- Tokyo CPI (excluding fresh food): Forecast at 2.5% (previous: 2.2%).
- Industrial production and retail sales data are key focuses this week.
- Impact of U.S. Policies:
- President-elect Trump’s tariff policies may increase inflationary pressures, creating potential policy risks in the U.S.
XAU/USD (Gold) – Sell
Current Situation: XAU/USD is attempting to rise around 2629.00.
Key Points:
- U.S. Federal Reserve (FRB):
- Continued rate cut expectations are supporting gold prices.
- Slower growth in inflation indicators boosts gold’s appeal.
- U.S. Jobless Claims Data:
- Improvements in the labor market may sustain dollar strength, acting as a neutral factor for gold prices.
Summary
Short-Term Focus:
- U.S. labor market data (jobless claims).
- Japan’s CPI and industrial production data.
Year-End Market Trends:
- In thin trading environments, technical indicators and key remarks from policymakers may influence short-term trends.
- Moving forward, national policy announcements and geopolitical risks are expected to continue shaping market sentiment.
