Key Currencies and Technical Analysis (4-Hour Chart) – December 6, 2024
EUR/USD – Strong Buy
EUR/USD is showing mixed movement around 1.0575, trading near the recent high of November 29. Market participants are focused on today’s economic indicators from the Eurozone and the US.
- German Industrial Production (October): Expected -1.0% MoM (forecast +1.2%, previous revised -2.0%).
- Eurozone GDP (Q3): Forecast unchanged at +0.9% YoY, +0.4% QoQ.
- Eurozone Retail Sales (October): Forecast -1.9% YoY (previous -1.7%), -0.5% MoM.
- US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP): Forecast +200,000 (previous +12,000), signaling a significant recovery.
- Average Hourly Earnings: Forecast to slow to +0.3% MoM, +3.9% YoY.
GBP/USD – Strong Buy
GBP/USD is trading sideways near 1.2745, close to the recent high from November 12, as the market remains cautious ahead of the US employment report.
- UK Economic Outlook: BoE Governor Andrew Bailey acknowledged a downward trend in inflation and suggested further rate cuts next year.
- US Employment Data: NFP expected to add +200,000 jobs, with average hourly earnings slowing to +0.3% MoM, +3.9% YoY.
- Market Impact: The ADP Employment Change for November reported +146,000, falling short of expectations (+150,000).
NZD/USD – Strong Sell
NZD/USD is declining near 0.5855, erasing Thursday’s gains as position adjustments take place ahead of the US jobs report.
- US Economic Data Impact: Initial Jobless Claims increased to 224,000 from 215,000, while Continuing Claims fell to 1.871 million from 1.896 million.
- China’s Economic Influence: November Services PMI declined to 50.0 (previous 50.2), while Manufacturing PMI beat expectations at 51.5.
- Outlook: NZD/USD remains sensitive to US economic developments.
USD/JPY – Buy
USD/JPY is steady around the 150.00 level, with cautious trading ahead of the US employment data.
- Japanese Economic Indicators:
- Leading Index: 108.6 (previous 108.9).
- Coincident Index: Improved to 116.5 (previous 114.0).
- Wage Growth (October): +2.6% YoY (previous +2.5%).
- Outlook: Rising inflation risks in Japan are supporting expectations of a BOJ rate hike.
XAU/USD – Buy
XAU/USD is testing 2640.00 again, showing upward momentum despite persistent selling pressure.
- US Employment Data Expectations:
- NFP: Forecast +200,000 (previous +12,000).
- Average Hourly Earnings: +0.3% MoM, +3.9% YoY.
- Unemployment Rate: Expected to rise to 4.2% (previous 4.1%).
- Additional Drivers: France’s political crisis is adding safe-haven demand for gold as the French National Assembly passed a no-confidence vote, prompting PM Barnier’s resignation.
Summary
The markets are focused on today’s US employment data, which is expected to set the tone for currency and commodity movements. Key highlights include EUR/USD and GBP/USD maintaining bullish momentum, while NZD/USD faces selling pressure. USD/JPY remains steady with a cautious bias, and XAU/USD is supported by safe-haven demand amid geopolitical and economic risks.
