Market Overview: US Stock Market Hits All-Time Highs, BOJ Rate Hike Speculation
Market Conditions
US Stock Market
- US stocks continue to set new all-time highs, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices showing particularly strong performance, driven by tech stocks.
- Year-end holiday sales and robust corporate earnings are supporting the risk-on sentiment across the market.
Bank of Japan (BOJ)
- BOJ board member Nakamura’s dovish stance has slightly shifted, creating a market surprise.
- His comment, “I am not entirely opposed to a rate hike,” spurred yen buying, briefly pushing USD/JPY below the 150 mark.
- However, December rate hikes remain uncertain, and the market is cautiously monitoring BOJ developments.
France and South Korea
- Political instability in France and South Korea’s martial law controversy have had limited impact on markets for now, but they remain areas of concern.
Key Economic Indicators and Events
United States
- Initial Jobless Claims (Forecast: 215k, Previous: 213k)
- Trade Balance, Challenger Job Cuts
Europe
- German Factory Orders, French Industrial Production Index
- Eurozone Retail Sales
Others
- South Africa Current Account Balance, Canada Ivey PMI
Bitcoin Surpasses $100,000: Renewed Optimism
Bitcoin Performance
- Breakthrough: Bitcoin has cleanly surpassed the $100,000 milestone, driven by strong buying and continued upward momentum.
- The breakout of major resistance levels has opened the door for further gains.
Strategy
- Anticipating further upward movement, adopt a dip-buying strategy.
- Manage positions carefully, as short-term corrections may occur.
Today’s Trading Strategies
USD/JPY
- With renewed BOJ rate hike speculation, focus on movements below the 150 mark.
- Consider short-term trades within the range while confirming support levels.
EUR/USD
- Target selling opportunities on rallies due to French political risks and weak Eurozone economic indicators.
BTC/USD
- Following Bitcoin’s $100,000 breakout, continue with a dip-buying strategy, anticipating further gains.
XAU/USD
- With strong risk-on sentiment, consider short-term selling opportunities during periods of correction.
Conclusion
The market is supported by the robust performance of US stocks and prevailing risk-on sentiment. However, individual risk factors, such as BOJ rate hike speculation and political instability in France and South Korea, could still influence markets, necessitating flexible trading strategies.
Bitcoin’s performance remains a key focus. Its clean breakthrough above $100,000 suggests a continued bullish outlook, making it a primary candidate for strategic positioning.
