Focus on Key Currencies and Technical Analysis (4-hour Chart) – December 3, 2024
EUR/USD – Buy
EUR/USD is currently trading near 1.0490, showing a directionless trend. The “bearish” sentiment has gained strength following weak macroeconomic data from the EU and stronger-than-expected data from the US.
EU Data:
- Germany’s Manufacturing PMI decreased slightly from 43.2 to 43.0, while France dropped from 43.2 to 43.1.
- The Eurozone’s overall Manufacturing PMI remained at 45.2, and the unemployment rate in October remained at 6.3%.
US Data:
- S&P Global Manufacturing PMI increased from 48.8 to 49.7.
- ISM Manufacturing PMI rose from 46.5 to 48.4, surpassing the expected 47.5.
Investors are focused on tomorrow’s service PMI data for both the Eurozone and the US, along with the ADP employment report, which is expected to show a slowdown in job growth from 233,000 to 150,000. The October Eurozone PPI is also set to be released, with a forecasted increase of 0.4% month-over-month. Additionally, ECB President Christine Lagarde is scheduled to speak at 17:30 (GMT+2), with insights into monetary policy expected.
GBP/USD – Strong Buy
GBP/USD is in a downward trend, continuing the “bearish” momentum formed at the beginning of the week. The pair is currently testing the 1.2640 level and is influenced by UK economic data.
UK Data:
- The British Retail Consortium (BRC) reported a 3.4% decrease in retail sales in November, significantly worse than the forecasted 0.7% increase.
- The Nationwide Housing Index saw an increase of 1.2% month-over-month, with a yearly rise of 3.7%.
- The S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI dropped from 48.6 to 48.0.
Focus remains on tomorrow’s US employment report at 15:30 (GMT+2), where the NFP is expected to rise from 12,000 to 195,000, while average hourly earnings are predicted to decelerate from 0.4% to 0.3% month-over-month. The unemployment rate is expected to increase from 4.1% to 4.2%.
Additionally, tomorrow at 15:15 (GMT+2), the ADP Employment Report will be released, forecasting a decrease from 233,000 to 150,000. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is also expected to speak at 11:00 (GMT+2) regarding policy plans.
NZD/USD – Strong Buy
NZD/USD is moving sideways, currently trading around 0.5875, with the market focused on macroeconomic statistics suggesting a potential slowdown in US monetary policy easing.
US Data:
- S&P Global Manufacturing PMI increased from 48.8 to 49.7.
- ISM Manufacturing PMI rose from 46.5 to 48.4, exceeding the forecasted 47.5.
Meanwhile, in New Zealand, building permit numbers for October dropped sharply from a 2.4% increase to a 5.2% decrease. However, China’s November Caixin Manufacturing PMI increased from 50.3 to 51.5, surpassing the expected 50.5, offering some support to the NZD.
USD/JPY – Strong Sell
USD/JPY is showing signs of recovery from last week’s sharp decline, attempting to break back above 150.00.
Japan Data:
- Tokyo’s CPI for November increased from 1.8% to 2.6% year-over-year.
- Excluding food and energy, CPI rose from 1.8% to 2.2%.
- October’s unemployment rate worsened slightly from 2.4% to 2.5%, while retail sales increased by 1.6% month-over-month, below the forecasted 2.2%.
Tomorrow’s ADP Employment Report, ISM Services PMI, and Fed Chairman Powell’s speech are expected to influence market sentiment.
XAU/USD – Strong Buy
XAU/USD is trading around 2640.00, showing sideways movement as the market awaits new developments. After the US Thanksgiving break, trading volumes have increased slightly.
US Data:
- ADP Employment Report will be released at 15:15 (GMT+2), with a forecast of 165,000 new jobs added.
- ISM Services PMI will be released at 17:00 (GMT+2), with the Beige Book scheduled for 21:00 (GMT+2).
- Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will speak at 20:45 (GMT+2), and his comments on a possible rate cut in December will be closely monitored.
Conclusion
Markets are currently focused on the upcoming economic indicators and central bank speeches, with volatility expected. The US jobs data will be a major market driver, and traders should pay close attention to how these events unfold throughout the week.
