Focus Currency and Technical Analysis (1-Hour Chart): November 21, 2024

Focus Currency and Technical Analysis (1-Hour Chart): November 21, 2024

EUR/USD: Sell

• Current Situation: Consolidating around 1.0550. Market is in stagnation due to mixed economic indicators.
• Key Factors:
  • Germany’s Producer Price Index (PPI):
    • YoY: -1.1% (Previous: -1.4%). As expected, suggests easing inflationary pressures.
    • MoM: +0.2% (Previous: -0.5%). Improvement trend.
  • US Economic Data:
    • New jobless claims expected at 220K, showing a small increase.
• Market Focus:
  • ECB officials’ speeches (Philip Lane, Frank Elderson).
  • Friday’s Germany Q3 GDP and S&P Global PMI data.

GBP/USD: Strong Sell

• Current Situation: Trading near 1.2655. Uncertainty persists after a significant drop yesterday.
• Key Factors:
  • UK CPI:
    • YoY: +2.3% (Previous: +1.7%, Market Forecast: +2.2%).
    • MoM: +0.6% (Previous: 0.0%, Market Forecast: +0.5%).
  • UK PPI:
    • YoY: +1.7% (Previous: +1.4%).
    • MoM: +0.3% (Previous: 0.0%).
• Market Focus:
  • BoE’s Catherine Mann speech.
  • US jobless claims data.

AUD/USD: Strong Buy

• Current Situation: Recovery trend after a sharp decline. Strong upward movement observed.
• Key Factors:
  • RBA Movement:
    • Michelle Bullock’s speech could support future rate hike expectations.
  • US Economic Data:
    • Expecting an increase in existing home sales to 3.93M.
• Market Focus:
  • US jobless claims data and existing home sales data.

USD/JPY: Strong Sell

• Current Situation: Consolidating around 155.00.
• Key Factors:
  • US Policy Expectations:
    • Strengthening tariffs under the Trump administration could risk inflation.
  • BOJ Movement:
    • While there are expectations for tighter monetary policy, a clear timeline remains uncertain.

XAU/USD: Buy

• Current Situation: Maintaining a recovery trend, testing levels near 2660.00.
• Key Factors:
  • Support Factors:
    • Inflation risk under the Trump administration.
    • Geopolitical risk (Middle East tensions, Russia’s nuclear doctrine review).
• Market Focus:
  • S&P Global PMI (Manufacturing and Services) to be released today.
  • Michigan University Inflation Expectation Index to be released tomorrow.

Summary: Today’s Strategy

• EUR/USD: Consider a selling strategy, given the continuation of stagnation around 1.0550.
• GBP/USD: Continue with a strong sell stance, targeting further declines in GBP after inflation data.
• AUD/USD: Build a buy position based on the recovery trend.
• USD/JPY: Consider short-term sell positions if resistance at 155.00 proves difficult to break.
• XAU/USD: Continue buying, considering geopolitical risks and market reactions.

We will closely monitor short-term price movements and respond quickly to market reactions post-indicator releases.