EUR/USD – Buy
The EUR/USD pair is slightly up, testing a breakout at 1.0700. Investors are focused on Germany’s Ifo statistics, showing declines in business climate and economic expectations. The Eurozone’s manufacturing and services PMIs fell, while the US PMIs rose. The ECB’s monetary policy has lowered Eurozone business activity, but the US Federal Reserve is expected to begin easing after September.
GBP/USD – Strong Buy
The GBP/USD pair is attempting to break out at 1.2645. The Bank of England held rates at 5.25%, with the CPI slowing to 2.0%. The BoE may adjust rates in September. The latest Q1 GDP stats are due on June 28, with no changes expected. The US PCE price index is also anticipated, likely slowing to 2.6%.
NZD/USD – Strong Buy
The NZD/USD pair trades near 0.6116, pressured by a strong USD. The US PMIs rose, while New Zealand’s increased exports and reduced trade deficit supported the kiwi. US PCE data, expected this week, could influence borrowing costs in September.
USD/JPY – Strong Sell
The USD/JPY pair trades at 159.75, a high since April 29. BoJ’s interventions haven’t had a lasting effect, with the yen under pressure again. Japan’s national CPI accelerated to 2.8%, but core CPI slowed. Tokyo’s CPI, May’s industrial production, and unemployment data are due on June 28.
XAU/USD (Gold/USD) – Sell
Gold/USD trades at 2325.00, attempting to recover from last week’s drop caused by strong US PMIs. The data adjusted expectations for immediate Fed easing. US income and spending data, along with PCE, are due on June 28, critical for the Fed.
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