EUR/USD: Buy – Slight Decline, Watching ECB Rate Cut Forecasts The EUR/USD pair has slightly fallen, following a bearish trend formed mid-last week, and is now testing the support level at 1.0600. Today, the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index is expected to show an increase from 31.7 to 35.1 points in Germany and from 33.5 to 37.2 points in the Eurozone. Additionally, Italy’s inflation statistics for March have been released, unchanged from previous estimates, with a monthly increase of 0.1% and an annual rate of 1.3%. Tomorrow, key inflation statistics for March in the Eurozone are due, with the Consumer Price Index expected to increase by 0.8% month-on-month and 2.4% year-on-year.
GBP/USD: Neutral – Slight Decline, Pressure from UK Labor Market Statistics The GBP/USD pair has slightly declined, trading near the local low of 1.2430 from November 17, 2023. Today, UK labor market statistics have exerted pressure, with the unemployment rate rising from 4.0% to 4.2% over the past three months. On Wednesday, the UK’s March inflation statistics are expected to be released, with the Consumer Price Index forecasted to slow from an annual rate of 3.4% to 3.1%.
AUD/USD: Sell – Strong Decline, Focused on Chinese Statistics The AUD/USD pair has significantly declined, reflecting a strong bearish movement formed mid-last week, testing a breakdown at 0.6420. Investors are focused on Chinese statistics, with the GDP for the first quarter rising from an annual rate of 5.2% to 5.3%. Today, the U.S. will release statistics on industrial production and housing starts for March.
USD/JPY: Buy – Little Fluctuation, Lack of Japanese Statistics The USD/JPY pair is trading at 154.30, with market activity subdued due to a lack of macroeconomic statistics from Japan. The dollar was slightly supported by yesterday’s retail sales statistics. Today, remarks from Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, are expected, though no significant impact is anticipated.
XAU/USD: Strong Sell – Resuming Mild Rise The Gold/USD pair is testing 2390.00 and resuming a mild rise. Investors agree that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to reduce borrowing costs anytime soon, and it is likely that the first adjustment of 25 basis points will be delayed until September. Today, Canadian inflation statistics will be released, along with remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem.
