The trend of the dollar’s depreciation continues this week. Since the beginning of November, the downward pressure on the dollar continued from the fundamental side, such as a series of sluggish growth in the US price statistics and weak economic sentiment indexes. Fed officials have shown conflicting views, such as a reduction in future interest rate hikes and speculation that the level of the terminal rate will be raised. It looks like it was hit. The dollar index has broken below the point 200-day moving average line, and the downtrend is clear.
Under such circumstances, today’s US employment statistics will be announced. The market expects the number of non-agricultural sector employees to increase by 200,000, a slight slowdown from the previous increase of 261,000. The unemployment rate is expected to remain flat at 3.7%. Wage trends are attracting attention as an item that affects prices. The average hourly wage is expected to increase by 4.6% from the previous year and +0.3% from the previous month, showing a slight slowdown from the previous survey.
“What about the market reaction?” If the overall results are strong, we can expect an initial reaction of dollar buying from rising US Treasury yields. With the weekend just around the corner, US stocks are under pressure to adjust, and it is likely that dollar buying and yen buying due to caution against risk will be mixed. On the other hand, if the numbers are weak, it will likely react to dollar selling as US bond yields fall, and dollar and yen selling as stocks rise. However, there may be cases where the strengths and weaknesses of the results are mixed. In that case, it seems likely that the dollar’s depreciating pressure will continue.
After this, Canadian employment statistics will be announced along with the US employment statistics in overseas markets. The number of employees is expected to increase by 10,000 compared to the previous increase of 108,300. The unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly to 5.3% from 5.2% last time.
Today, the dollar/yen broke the 135.00 support and plunged to the 133 yen level at once. The major trend is continued weakness of the US dollar, but the US employment statistics show the possibility of a short-term rise again, so be careful. If it rises in the short term, we are also thinking about selling.
