Focusing on the US FOMC meeting this week, the market is focusing on interest rate hikes by central banks around the world. The FOMC is pricing in a 75bp rate hike of over 80% and a 100bp rate hike of less than 20%. It is likely that the evaluation of the degree of interest rate hikes by the central banks of each country will be judged on the basis of the United States.
Other economic indicators announced include the Eurozone current account balance (July), US housing starts (August), US housing permits (August), and the Canadian Consumer Price Index (August). The Canadian consumer price index is expected to grow by about 7.3% year-on-year, and like the United States, growth is expected to slow down from +7.6% last time. However, unlike the United States, it does not appear that the forecast for inflation to peak out is strongly factored in in advance, so it is expected that the Canadian dollar will obediently react to deviations from expectations.
In relation to the remarks event, speeches by Estonia’s central bank governor Muller and ECB governor Lagarde are scheduled. Lagarde is likely to show the ECB’s uniqueness ahead of the US FOMC. Mueller, on the other hand, is seen as a hawk and is likely to propose the next 75 basis point rate hike. In terms of US bonds, an auction of US 20-year bonds ($12 billion) will be held.
Although no major economic indicators are planned, it is assumed that European currencies, led by the EUR, may move due to remarks by key figures.