The ECB board announcement after this will focus on the rate hike. In the money market in advance, the observations of a 0.25% rate hike and a 0.50% rate hike are at odds with each other. It is necessary to be prepared to react regardless of which one comes out. In addition, measures against fragmentation of the European bond market are expected to be announced at this board meeting. The German Federation and others have insisted that conditions such as fiscal discipline be set so that fiscal finance does not occur. It is necessary to check whether it will be the content of the announcement of the jade color.
There are many uncertainties about the euro. In addition to the fight against high inflation, Italy’s political instability and Russia’s hard-line stance in the Ukrainian war. The resumption of Nord Stream 1 is also extremely unstable, with the Russian side taking the lead in gas supply. A euro-buying reaction is expected if the interest rate rises by 0.50%, but it is unclear how far it will grow.
Today’s ECB is paying attention to whether the rate hike is 0.25% or 0.50%. However, even if it is 0.50%, it is difficult to read how much there is room for the EUR, which has so many anxiety factors, to rise.
If the EUR is a clear flow, we will consider short-tempered trading.