This week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has announced a policy of raising rates by 0.5% at FOMC several times in the future, and the meaning of employment statistics in terms of the impact on the latest monetary policy will recede. The employment statistics are still attracting a lot of attention, as it is an important point whether the employment situation that supports the US economy is maintained as the prices rise.
The market forecast for the number of non-farm payrolls is 380,000, which is a fairly high level even though the growth has slowed from the previous 431,000 increase. However, leading indicators such as the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing business indexes and the number of ADP employees are all weak, and the market forecast has been revised downward slightly compared to last weekend. If it shows weaker than expected, there is also a movement to sell dollars. On the other hand, there is a possibility that it will show a strong increase in employment mainly in the leisure & hospitality sector where recovery caution is seen, and in this case it is safe to buy dollars.
As prices rise intensifying, pay attention to the average hourly wage. The month-on-month rate is expected to be + 0.4%, the same as the previous month, and the year-on-year rate is expected to be 5.5%, a slight slowdown from the previous month. There is also a move to buy dollars when it seems that the rise is higher than expected.
It was a little difficult to move until the employment statistics were announced. As the dollar-yen pair has a strong sense of downside, is the price range limited even though it is expected to move upwards? Eurodollar is heavier around 1.0550. However, since yesterday’s market was cautious about selling at 1.04 units, it is difficult to aggressively sell before employment statistics.
The pound sold at around 1.2350 as a result of the negative growth outlook and the continued stance of raising interest rates was shown at the British-Central Bank monetary policy meeting yesterday. After dropping from around 1.2580 in front of the British and Central Banks to 1.2320 units, the price has continued to be in the middle of 1.23 units. It is possible that the 1.2300-breaking try before the employment statistics is a little tough, but the return is slow and the risk is downward.
First of all, I will check the price movement after the US employment statistics, and if there is something to buy in USD buying, I am thinking about buying.
I thought about selling when the GBP plunged yesterday, but I didn’t enter because there is a high probability that the GBP will rebound suddenly.
For now, the only aim is to buy USDJPY.
