The New Year market has started. There have been no noticeable changes in levels since New Year’s Eve last year, such as the dollar-yen pair in the low 115-yen range and the euro-dollar pair in the mid-1.13 range. Although Hong Kong stocks have been weak, risk trends have calmed down as all three major indices such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average have been bought for US stock futures in after-hours trading.
If the stock market does not collapse significantly, it is expected that the dollar-yen pair will continue to move steadily with a view to the high of 115.52 levels since last year. While the United States and the United Kingdom have clearly turned to hawkish stance and the ECB has made concrete moves on tapering, the Bank of Japan has taken a stance of continuing its ultra-easy policy. It seems that the difference in monetary policy stance is likely to cause the yen to depreciate.
This week, December US employment statistics will be released on Friday. The current market forecast is to increase the number of non-farm payrolls to 400,000, which is expected to recover from the previous 210,000. The unemployment rate is expected to be 4.1%, a decrease from the previous 4.2%. It will be noticed as a support material in terms of buying dollars.
Today, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, China, etc. will be closed, and markets such as the UK, Russia, and Canada will also be closed. It seems that the year-end and New Year holiday market will continue. The economic indicators released in it are the Turkish Consumer Price Index (December), the Swiss SVME Purchasing Managers Index (December), the Hong Kong Retail Sales Index (November), France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the United States. The manufacturing industry PMI confirmation value (December), US construction expenditure (November), etc. are planned. There are no plans for a speech event by major financial officials.
Basically, there is no change in the policy of buying the squeeze of USDJPY and selling the return of EURUSD.
Today, there are still few market participants and liquidity is low, so we are planning to enter from tomorrow.